平安銀行投資價值分析

Abstract

隨著我國金融改革的深化推進，商業銀行之間的各類資本運作活動也日益頻繁。為了有效實施這些資本運作活動，正確評估商業銀行的價值成為一個首要解決的問題。本文以平安銀行為研究物件，對其投資價值展開了分析。具體來說： 首先，本文對平安銀行所處的金融經濟環境、銀行業的現狀以及平安銀行自身的發展現狀展開全方位的分析，認為平安銀行所處的外部環境既充滿了挑戰，又充滿了機遇；而平安銀行已經形成了自己的核心競爭力，鑒於平安銀行自身的優勢比較明顯，未來將具備足夠的能力發揮優勢機會抓住機遇創造價值，改變劣勢威脅規避風險，在公司業務、零售業務、資金同業業務、投行業務、小企業金融業務，以及綜合金融業務這六大業務領域實現較大的發展。 其次，本文基於平安銀行公佈的2014年第三季度報告，從資產狀況和盈利能力兩個方面對平安銀行的財務狀況展開分析，並與其他15家上市銀行進行對比分析。通過同行業比較分析，發現平安銀行的各項監管指標均符合要求，是一家資產規模增長較快、資產負債結構相對優化、資產品質相對穩定、盈利能力較強、風險控制能力較好的全國性股份制商業銀行。在前瞻性和科學性的公司戰略的指導下，未來平安銀行具有較大的發展潛力。 再次，本文分別採用收益法和市場法對平安銀行的價值進行評估。根據收益法，平安銀行每股價值為19.20元；根據市場法，平安銀行每股價值在11.61元~13.38元之間。2015年3月9日，平安銀行的收盤價為14.15元，說明其股價處在合理投資範圍。 最後，本文基於平安銀行價值評估的結果，從宏觀經濟風險、貨幣政策風險、銀行業發展面臨的風險以及平安銀行發展面臨的風險等方面對平安銀行投資風險的分析，為投資者進行投資決策提供參考建議。

With the deepening of China’s financial reform, various types of capital operation between commercial banks have become more and more frequent. In order to effectively implement these activities, accurate assessment of the value of commercial banks has become a primary problem. Taking Ping An Bank as the research object, this paper carries out a detailed study on its investment value. Specifically: First of all, This paper conducts an all-round analysis on China’s financial and economic environment, the banking industry, as well as the current situation of Ping An Bank, and holds that the external environment confronting Ping An Bank is full of both challenges and opportunities; meanwhile Ping An Bank has formed its own core competitiveness; in view of the relatively obvious advantages boasted by Ping An bank itself, it will have adequate capability to exert its advantages to create value by to seizing the opportunity, while alter the inferior position and avoid risk, and achieve greater development in six major business areas such as retail business, capital business, investment banking, small business financial services, and comprehensive financial business. Secondly, based on the third quarterly report for 2014 announced by Ping An Bank, this paper carries out a detailed study on the from the financial condition of Ping An Bank from the perspective of assets status and profitability, accompanied by comparison with the other 15 listed banks. The comparative analysis reveals that the supervision index of Ping An Bank are in line with the state supervision requirements, and Ping An Bank is a commercial banks with relatively optimized assets and liabilities structure, stable asset quality, strong profitability, and scientific risk control ability, exhibiting relatively fast growth. Under the guidance of forward-looking and scientific corporate strategy, Ping An Bank boasts rather huge development potential. Thirdly, this paper adopts the income approach and market approach respectively to assess the value of Ping An bank. According to the income approach, the value of Ping An Bank stands at 19.20 Yuan per share; while according to the market approach, the value of Ping An Bank stands between 11.61 Yuan to 13.38 Yuan per share. On March 9, 2015, the closing price of the share of Ping An Bank is 14.15 Yuan indicating that its share price is within reasonable scope of investment. Finally, based on the above findings, this paper evaluates the investment risks facing Ping An Bank from the perspective of macro economic risk, the risk of monetary policy, the risks confronting the banking industry, as well as the risks interfering the development of Ping An Bank, thus providing reference and recommendations for potential investors.