營運資金限制與破產風險之動態產能策略研究

Abstract

本研究為探討供應商如何在考慮營運資金限制下進行產能規劃。由於顧客需求存在高度不確定性，供應商可透過產能擴充提高獲利和顧客滿意度，而營運資金多寡亦為影響公司是否能夠存活的關鍵，因此供應商在決策是否擴充產能時，必須謹慎考慮其資金限制和未來收益兩者的平衡，才可使公司持續營運免於破產的風險。本研究利用動態規劃求解最佳產能擴充決策，以最大化公司期望總價值，並利用參數分析提出有利於企業營運之準則。

This research studies capacity planning problem under working capital constraints and bankruptcy risks. Because of the high uncertainty of customers, supplier can choose to make more profits and customers satisfied with expanding capacity. Working capital is the key to the company to live. Before expanding the capacity, supplier should balance the restriction of working capital and future rewards to make company not be bankrupt. This research finds the best decision to expand capacity and maximize the expected total liquidation value by dynamic programming. Finally, using the numerical analysis provides some useful supply chain management guidelines.