巴菲特選股原則在台股應用之可行性研究

Abstract

Warren Buffett 的成功故事大家已耳熟能詳，依據Berkshire 公司annual report資料，累計1965~2012年的47年間，總報酬率為5,868倍，年複合報酬率為19.7%，同期間，S&P 500指數總報酬率為74倍，年複合報酬率為9.4%，Berkshire 公司的總報酬率是S&P 500指數的79倍，績效卓越，本研究從Berkshire 公司歷年annual report資料中探討Warren Buffett選股重要原則，發現在台灣與其理論相近者，有找出洪瑞泰先生及王志能先生，他們兩位都有建立一套適用於台灣股市的選股原則，並且也挑出部分個股，而這些投資組合，在當時經驗證績效都極為良好，但是，我們所注重的是長期的績效，因此經過了這幾年，我們想回頭再進行分析那些投資組合是否仍維持高度績效。 此外，在本研究過程中，我們發現一個現象，就是高股東權益報酬率者，大家認同度都高，其股價也都居高不下，要等到合理的買進價位，難度甚高，因此，本研究針對這些高股東權益報酬率股票探討若參加除權除息，其填權填息情形，以獲得穩定回報。 最後，為了方便投資人能有效篩選高股東權益報酬率股票，在本研究報告中提供相關參考網站，希望能對投資人有所助益。

The success story of Warren Buffett has been well known by worldwide. According to Berkshire's annual report, it shows that during the 47 years period of 1965 to 2012, the accumulated total return rate was 5,868 times.Indicated the annual compound rate of return was 19.7%. During the same period, the total return of the S & P 500 index was 74 times, and the annual compound rate of return was 9.4%. Berkshire's total rate of return was 79 times comparing to the S & P 500 Index's. It’s truly a great performance. This research aiming at developing stock selection principles from Berkshire’s report, and we discovered that Mr. Hong Ruitai and Mr. Wang Zhineng have developed a set of stock selection principles, which have been applied to the Taiwan stock market. And these principles were explored from the Berkshire reports Now we are checking back to see whether these stock selection principles still maintain well performance after certain period. In addition, this study had found those stocks with high return on equity (ROE) also with high share price. Investors are difficult to procure these stocks under a reasonable price. Therefore, this research proposed suitable participate rules for obtaining stable return from for these high-ROE stocks by joining stock dividend. Finally, some reference web sites are cited here for the interesting investors, of which provide some filtrations for choosing high ROE stocks.