新聞事件之類型對BASU穩健原則之影響

Abstract

Basu (1997)裡所提到的反映盈餘及時性的不對稱就是最典型的有條件式穩健原則。簡單來說，壞消息比好消息更快反映在盈餘上；一旦發現壞消息就馬上認列。Basu採用年度的正(負)報酬當作好壞消息的代理變數。然而Basu所提出的論點僅是一部分的穩健原則，因為它根本與新聞事件無關。 本研究旨在探討報酬與新聞事件之間的關聯對當期盈餘的影響，將公司特定的新聞類型作為附加的解釋變數。公司特定的新聞歸類為兩組，其為”當年度”以及”下一年度”。新聞事件本身的特性會增加盈餘及時性的不對稱，導致好消息延後認列，更加及時的確認壞消息。”下一年度”的壞消息比”當年度”的壞消息會更快的反應在當年度的盈餘上。金融海嘯事發後的領先公司都對認列方面更加嚴格。相較於絕對小的報酬，在絕對大的報酬裡可以顯示更強烈的穩健原則。

In Basu’s paper The Conservatism Principle and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings (1997), he identifies the asymmetric timeliness of earnings response, the primary implication of conditional conservatism. In short, earnings respond to bad news more quickly than to good news; causing losses to be recognized immediately. Basu (1997) tested the asymmetric timeliness of earnings on contemporaneous returns using positive (negative) annual stock returns as proxies for good (bad) news. He, however, points out that an ordinary conservatism of a type that is unrelated to news events. In this study, I examine the association between returns and news in current earnings by including firm-specific news types as an additional explanatory variable. The firm-specific news are classified into two groups, either the “Current Group” or the “Subsequent Group”. The characteristics that news events would increase the different speeds of asymmetric timeliness of earnings shows that there is a delay in the reporting of good news and that bad news are recognized in a timelier manner. The current earnings reflect bad news from the “Subsequent Group” more quickly than good news from the “Current Group”. Leading companies are more conservative in their financial reporting after the financial crisis compared to the previous years. The absolute high returns of the news events will increase the conservatism compared to absolute low returns.