Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/17175Full metadata record
| ???org.dspace.app.webui.jsptag.ItemTag.dcfield??? | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 黃志典(Jyh-Dean Hwang) | |
| dc.contributor.author | I-chien Lee | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 李宜倩 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-07T23:59:37Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2013-08-25 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2013-08-16 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 中國人民銀行調查統計司課題組，2012，《我國加快資本帳戶開放的條件基本成熟》，北京：中國人民銀行。
吳心琪，2010，《國際貨幣制度演變之研究》，國立臺北大學經濟學研究所，碩士論文。 宋敏，2011，《走向全球第三大貨幣：人民幣國際化問題研究》初版，北京：北京大學出版社。 周小川，2013年，中國官方首度公開表態資本帳實現可兌換時間表的談話， http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/11050501/122013052200176.html 馬丹、陳志昂，2010，〈全球經濟失衡與美元的國際地位〉，《數量經濟技術經濟研究》，1：83-94。 陳雨露，2013，《走向核心國家——中國的大金融戰略與發展路徑》，北京：中國人民大學重陽金融研究院。 莊太量、許愫珊，2011，〈人民幣國際化與國際貨幣體系改革〉，《經濟裡論與經濟管理》，6：40-47。 黃志典，2009，《國際金融理論、政策與應用》，初版，新北市：前程文化。 彭德明，2009，〈金融危機與國際貨幣制度之檢討〉，《全球金融危機專輯》，初版，台北：中央銀行。 韓文秀，2011，《人民幣邁向國際貨幣》，初版，北京：經濟科學出版社。 Bergsten, C. F. 2009. Pacific Asia and the Asia Pacific: the choices for APEC. Policy Briefs PB09-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Caprio, G. and P. Honohan. 2001. Finance for growth: Policy choices in a volatile world. Washington DC: World Bank Policy Research Report. Cardon, P. and J. Coche. 2004. Strategic asset allocation for foreign exchange reserves. Risk Management for Central Bank Foreign Reserves, European Central Bank. Chen, H., W. Peng and C. Shu. 2009. The potential of the renminbi as an international currency. BIS Asian Research Program Research Paper. Chinn, M. and J. A. Frankel. 2005. Will the euro eventually surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency? NBER working paper No. 11510. Chinn, M. and J. A. Frankel. 2008. Why the euro will rival the dollar. International Finance 11 (1): 49-73. Cohen, B. J. 1971. The future of sterling as an international currency. 1st ed. London: Macmillan. Cohen, B. J. 2008. International political economy: An intellectual history. 1st ed. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. Cooper, R. N. 1997. Key currencies after the euro. Papers on the Web series, November. Available via the Internet: http://post.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/cooper/papers.html Dobson, W. and P. Masson. 2008. Will the renminbi become a world currency? Joseph L. R. School of Management, University of Toronto, IIB Paper No. 10. Eichengreen, B. 2007. Insurance underwriter or financial development fund: What role for reserve pooling in Latin America? NBER Working Papers 12451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Eichengreen, B. 2009. The dollar dilemma: The world’s top currency faces competition. Foreign Affairs September/October, 2009. Fouré, J., A. Bénassy-Quéré and L. Fontagné. 2012. The great shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon. CEPII working paper 2012-03. Galati, G. and P. Wooldridge. 2009. The euro as a reserve currency: A challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar? International Journal of Finance & Economics 14(1): 1-23 Greenspan, A. 2001. The euro as an international currency. Paper presented at the Euro 50 Group Roundtable, Washington, D.C., November 30. Hartmann, P. 1998. Currency competition and foreign exchange markets. 1st ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Hicks, J. 1967. Critical essays in monetary theory. 1st ed. London, England: Oxford University Press. Kenen, P. B. 2002. The euro versus the dollar: Will there be a struggle for dominance? Journal of Policy Modeling 24(4): 347-354. Kenen, P. B. 2009. Currency internationalization: An overview. BIS Seminar paper on currency internationalization: Lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific. Krugman, P. 1984. The international role of the dollar: Theory and prospect. In “Exchange rate theory and practice”, ed. J. Bilson and R. Marston, 261–78. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lee, J. W. 2010.Will the renminbi emerge as an international reserve currency? Paper presented at the workshop on 'China Toward an Upper Middle-income Country: Challenges and Policy Options,' organized by ADB and China Center for Economic Research (CCER) of Beijing University, on 31 May – 1 June 2010. Li, D. and L. Liu. 2007. RMB internationalization: An empirical analysis. Paper presented at the Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research Conference on Currency internationalization: international experiences and implications for the renminbi, Hong Kong SAR, 15–16 October. Lim, E.G. 2006. The euro’s challenge to the dollar: Different views from economists and evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and other data. IMF working paper WP/06/153. Ma, G. and R. Chen. 2010. The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 25 (1): 23-38. Matthew, C. 2000. The nineteenth century: The British Isles: 1815-1901. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 41. McKinnon, R. I. 1998. The euro threat is exaggerated. The International Economy 12 (May/June): 32–33, 60. McKinnon, R. I. 2001. The international dollar standard and sustainability of the U.S. current account deficit. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 227–239. Papaioannou, E., R. Portes and G. Siourounis. 2006. Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 20(4): 508-547. Stearns, P. N. 1993. The industrial revolution in world history. 1st ed., 21-24. Boulder: Westview Press. Tavlas, G.S. 1991. On the international use of currencies: The case of the Deutsche mark. Princeton Studies in International Economics 181, International Economics Section, Princeton University. Truman E. M. and P. Reuter. 2004. Chasing dirty money ―The fight against money laundering. 1st ed. Washington D.C., United States: Institute for International Economics. Truman, E. M. and A. Wong. 2006. The case for an international reserve diversification standard. Working Paper 06-2. Washington D.C., United States: Institute for International Economics. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/17175 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本文研究發行國的經濟基本條件對其貨幣占世界儲備份額的影響，並對未來國際儲備貨幣份額進行前景模擬。本研究的主要貢獻為：(1)選取1981年至2010年為觀察期間，推導近三十年國際貨幣使用慣性之影響大小；(2) 考量中國經濟成長與社經發展程度不對稱的特殊性，納入一國社經發展程度為解釋變數，以對人民幣未來在國際上的發展有更正確與符合常理的推斷。
本文研究結果顯示，最近三十年來國際貨幣使用之慣性為影響儲備份額大小最重要的因素；前人研究因觀察期間涵蓋貨幣秩序動盪的1970年代，因此其推導出的國際貨幣慣性，並未具備如本研究自1980年代至今三十年間一般大的影響力。另外，過去的研究因觀察對象皆為已開發國家，並未針對一國的社經發展程度進行分析；本研究考慮到中國社經發展程度仍落後先進國家的特性，依據中國目前社經發展程度與對未來成長樂觀的預期，推估出社經發展程度對人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣的進程具有約五年的影響。 中國欲推動人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣，除了需要加強自身條件，包括完善國內金融市場制度的建設、提升金融市場的發展水準，推動人民幣資本項目自由兌換、提升人民幣的國際流動性；同時，還應積極參與國際貨幣體系規則的制定、持續推動國際金融組織治理機制的改革，打破現有國際貨幣使用慣性，提升人民幣的國際地位。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper estimates the determinants of the shares of major currencies in the international reserve holdings of the world’s central banks. Projections are made through simulation. This paper contributes to the concurrent studies in two aspects. Firstly, it estimates the extent of network externalities of the latest three decades. Secondly, it includes socio-economic development to better understand the prospect of Renminbi as an international reserve currency.
We find that in the past thirty years, there is a strong inertial bias in favor of using whatever currency that has been internationally used already. Previous studies didn’t indicate the extent of inertia as great as ours in that their sample periods include the 1970s when international monetary system was shaky and volatile. Also, while previous studies focused on the characteristics of developed countries, this paper tries to capture the asymmetry between economic growth and socio-economic development of China. The progress of Renminbi as an international reserve currency will be delayed for 5 years when the influence of socio-economic development is considered. The prospect of Renminbi as an international reserve currency is contingent on China having a more liberalized capital account and an efficient financial system. Meanwhile, China should try to break the inertia by actively taking part in the construction of a more equitable global monetary system and expanding the role for Renminbi in promoting a well-functioning multi-currency system. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-07T23:59:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-102-R01724097-1.pdf: 1084362 bytes, checksum: 3eb0a49d124013dbc6d7e0daabc0a42d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 致 謝 I
摘 要 II Abstract III 目 錄 IV 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 3 第一節 國際貨幣及其與儲備貨幣的關連 3 第二節 國際儲備貨幣的發展歷史 5 第三節 影響一國貨幣成為國際儲備貨幣的關鍵因素 9 第四節 相關實證研究 12 第三章 研究方法 16 第一節 實證模型與變數說明 16 第二節 變數分析 20 第四章 研究分析與結果 25 第一節 實證結果 25 第二節 敏感性分析 28 第三節 情境模擬 30 第五章 結論與建議 45 參考文獻 47 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.title | 人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣之前景分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | An Empirical Study of the Prospect of Renminbi as an International Reserve Currency | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 101-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 廖咸興(Hsien-Hsing Liao),胡星陽(Shing-Yang Hu) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 國際儲備貨幣,人民幣,模擬,國際貨幣使用慣性,社經發展程度, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | International reserve,Renminbi,Simulation,Network externalities,Socio-economic development, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 51 | |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2013-08-16 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國際企業學研究所 | zh_TW |
| Appears in Collections: | 國際企業學系 | |
Files in This Item:
| File | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ntu-102-1.pdf Restricted Access | 1.06 MB | Adobe PDF |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.