簡單法則下需求不確定性之產能規劃探討

Abstract

本論文的目的是要建立一個簡化的分析方法，藉由這個架構，讓產能規劃者和管理者可以很容易地在需求不確地下做產能規劃的決策。產能規劃的目標是在決定何時該做產能的投資、擴張，並且該投資多少。在此論文中，我們提出一個兩階段的方法；這個方法是建立在決策理論的假設狀況分析和確定性決策方法的基礎上，即使非專業工程背景的產能規劃者也能輕易使用，並能有效與管理者溝通。本篇論文的貢獻對於產能規劃的研究可以歸納為三項。第一，我們發展一個通用模型，在需求確定下的情況，描述資源的產能規劃和評估資產投資計劃，以達到財務上的目標。這個通用模型可以適用於各個領域的資源產能規劃。第二，我們將前面的模型延伸，發展出考慮需求不確定下的決策模式，稱之為兩階段的方法。最後，我們簡化兩階段方法的決策規則；經由兩階段方法的實驗結果，可以推測出簡單的決策法則來因應需求的不確定性。產能規劃者和管理者可以根據需求確定下的產能投資計劃，快速地決定需要立即執行的最小投資方案。經由實驗的結果可以證明，我們所提出的兩階段方法和簡單決策法則，可實際運用於中小型的企業的產能擴張計劃，達到顯著的效果。

The aim of this thesis is to build the framework of capacity expansion decision in a simplified analytical method under demand uncertainty. The purpose of capacity planning is to determine when capacity should be invested and how much. In the thesis, a two-phase method is proposed based on the deterministic approach and decision theories in what if analysis. It is ease-of-use for a firm without involving Industrial engineering experts. There are three contributions made. First is the development of a generic model to exercise resource capacity and expansion plan for financial objective achievement. The generic model is applicable to resource capacity planning in various domains. Second is the development of an extension of deterministic model, we called two-phase method, to consider capacity decisions under demand uncertainty. The last is to simplify the decision rule, in order to save computational calculation for fast responsive, based on the relation of experimental results between the two-phase method and deterministic model when making decisions for capacity expansion plan. The experimental results have indicated that the proposed method has potential to become practical for capacity expansion planning.