我國利益團體對ECFA談判過程的影響：以面板業與石化業為例

Abstract

在WTO杜哈回合陷入僵局後，貿易自由化的浪潮仍方興未艾，世界各國紛紛以雙邊及區域性的貿易談判，取代WTO傳統的多邊談判框架。而處於世界上FTA活動最頻繁的東亞地區，我國亦在經歷數十年的對中貿易管制政策後，於2010年與中國大陸正式簽訂一兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)。面板與石化業做為我國主要之出口產業，皆被列入我國初步對中國大陸提出之降稅清單，並先後為陸方排除於早收清單外。值得注意的是，面板業在第一次正式談判中被排除後，即未被再納入早收；而石化業之泛用塑膠與化纖原料等主要製品，雖於第三次正式談判結果被排除，但於第五次江陳會談後，即成功將聚丙烯(PP)、苯乙烯聚合物(PS)等品項列入正式早收清單。事實上，根據新聞檢索結果，面板業業者僅對談判結果表示遺憾；而石化業業者則是以強烈之情緒化言辭，對談判結果表示極度不滿，並以召開記者會、安排專訪等方式製造輿論效果。二產業業者截然不同之反應，是否因此對最終談判結果造成影響，實為值得吾人深思之議題。 在此情況下，研究者乃興起以我國之面板業與石化業為研究對象，透過對十位專業及相關人士之半結構式深度訪談、及相關新聞資料與文獻的分析，探究我國利益團體對ECFA早收清單談判過程影響之研究動機。具體而言，本研究之研究問題涵括：(1)在行政部門擬定初步早收清單的過程中，面板業與石化業利益團體影響之途徑與策略分別為何？而在談判過程中，是否存在利益團體對政府的施壓空間？(2)我國談判團隊為爭取將面板業與石化業納入早收清單，於談判上所遭遇之困難為何？(3)行政部門在早收清單之談判過程中，如何於個別產業間進行取捨？ 研究結果顯示，面板業業者主要透過直接表達方式與政府進行溝通，利益表達管道雖暢通，但在早收清單談判上，除了遭遇中國大陸方面反對，面板業佔我國出口比重過高、其主要競爭對手非東協國家、以及業者基於本身經營考量等三大議題，乃是我國面板項目無法列入早收清單之主要原因。而石化業雖同樣遭遇中國大陸反對，但由於東協國家石化產品免稅進入中國市場，使其面臨迫切之生存危機，政府乃將泛用塑膠列入早收清單作為談判目標之一；而業者於談判之緊要關頭，亦改採取間接表達的利益表達方式，利用輿論效果，對政府進行施壓；此外，中國大陸PP之自給率偏低，亦為我國談判團隊提供突破點。綜合而言，上述三項理由，乃是我國石化業最終成功將PP納入早收清單之主要原因。最後，研究者根據研究結果，對後續研究提出進一步建議。

Resulting to the depression of Doha’s Round, countries around the world have resorted to bilateral and regional trade negotiations to replace the traditional multilateral negotiating framework of WTO. As a member of East-Asian countries, which are keen to signing FTA, Taiwan had ended trade control policy since 1949, signed ECFA with government of mainland China in 2010. As Taiwan’s main export industries, the products of TFT-LCD and petrochemical industries were included in Taiwan’s initial tariff reduction list proposed to mainland China , and had ruled out by the Chinese government at the first and third stage of negotiation. It is noteworthy that the TFT-LCD is not listed on the early harvest list ultimately, however, the items of PP and PS, which are important products in petrochemical industries, has been successfully included in the official early harvest list after the fifth meeting of Jiang and Chen. According to the news, the interest group of petrochemical industry showed extreme dissatisfaction with the results of the negotiations by emotional rhetoric, and tried to resorting to the public by convening a press conference arranging interviews., The researcher is wondering that whether the distinct reaction between two industries cause an effect on the result of negotiation Therefore, the researcher decided to explore the influence of the interest groups on Taiwan’s approach to negotiation of ECFA through the semi-structural interviews to 10 experts and relevant persons and analysis of news and literature. Specifically, this study covers issues such as (1) How did the interest groups of TFT-LCD and Petrochemical industries affect the Taiwan’s administrative officials in the process of raising the proposal of early harvest list? (2) What is the difficulties of the Taiwan’s negotiation team to listing the products of TFT-LCD and Petrochemical industries to the early harvest list? (3) How did the administrative branch to choose products to listing to the early harvest list in the process of negotiation? According to the research result, the interest group of TFT-LCD industries conveyed their opinion to governments through direct ways easily, however, they faced the opposition which is held by mainland China in the negotiation of early harvest list. Moreover, the main reason that their panel can not list to the list are that the panel’s percentage is too high in Taiwan’s output, their competitor is not the ASEAN countries, and the operators of this industry have their own managing consideration. In the contrary, although the petrochemical industry faced the opposition of China equally, they finally listed their products to the early harvest list because of three reasons. First, the main competitor of petrochemical industry are ASEAN countries, which already have free trade agreement with China. It brings urgent surviving crisis to Taiwan’s operator. Second, the petrochemical interest groups took indirect ways of interest expression instead of traditional direct ways in the critical moment, and used public media to persuaded the government. Third, China’s self-sufficiency rate of PP is low. It provided a breaking point to Taiwan’s negotiate team.