美國加利福尼亞州能源安全分析：從巴西的能源政策吸取之教訓

Abstract

This research was done to study the different aspects of energy security in context of extracting lessons from Brazil’s energy policy, for the state of California. The study had chosen California, because it is the most productive state in the union, in regards to total GDP. It also boasts the most important technological hub in the world, in Palo Alto. It also has a long story of being the most advanced state, in regards to renewable energy. Brazil was chosen, because it has implemented prime examples of country wide development of renewable energy. The ethanol programme for transportation and hydropower for electricity. The methodology used was a qualitative comparison of governmental and international organization’s data, to see the progress of energy diversification. Since the 1970’s oil crisis’s to the present day, and near future. Case study methodologies of observation and comparison of one case to another were used. In order to arrive at some important conclusions regarding the slow change of California. It was found that the rate of organizational change and goal attainment in governmental agencies, is much faster in state capitalist countries like Brazil. California, and all liberal democracies, are slowed down by the network management of private companies. The document will show, the different trends of generation, demand, forecasts, and planned investment of the last decades, and near future. To certify the rate of slow change. At the end, we can see that California, even though has made considerable efforts, still lags, and even has regressed their energy dependence over the last four decades. In addition, it was found that the state has indirectly managed investor owned companies, choose to invest on fossil fuel sourced electric generation, instead of renewable energy. The energy commission does pressure private companies, and have been moderately successful. Establishing the seeds of many interesting projects. They have reached 14% of their electricity demand on renewable sources. But Brazil successfully furnishes the whole country with 78% hydro generated power. They have been done it with state capitalist strategies, and cooperation from the private sector as well. Petroleum will never lower its price, because demand is growing, and supply is non renewable. It is of imperative importance to attain a diversified energy mix, to balance out risks of oil shocks, ever present. From the findings of the study, it is suggested that the state can speed up renewable energy conversion, by participating in the market, through stock investments of already established companies. The state can have majority voting, and invest in these indigenously sourced energy renewable plants. Not just electricity generation, but biomass including ethanol, that can help reduce the dependence on oil.