台灣傳統型旅行業因應產業生態變化之研究

Abstract

本研究整合商業生態系統法(Business Ecosystem)與情境分析(Scenario Analysis)前瞻台灣傳統型旅行業者未來的經營策略發展，目的使其永續發展，協助突破目前所面臨旅遊產業大幅變動所產生之經營困境。本研究以市場上市佔率前三大之成功公司之研究個案為佐證，以次級資料與專家訪談的方式建構出台灣旅遊產業的商業生態系統形貌，並歸納出該產業中成功者之發展趨勢與特徵，再利用情境分析討論該產業的外部驅動力量與衝擊－不確定構面強度矩陣，模擬出未來市場可能面臨的三種情境，並利用情境意涵結合商業生態系統研究結果，為台灣傳統型旅行業者以全方位且宏觀之角度，探討於不同地景環境下，中長期間應該採取的發展策略。 本研究並協助案例公司－傳統型旅行業者F公司進行發展策略制定實務應用，將其商業生態系統結合總體經濟、社會政經等情境模擬，協助F公司以較為系統性方式觀察其所屬產業生態系統未來演化趨勢，進一步幫助其制定符合時宜之發展策略。

This thesis puts forward recommendations for the future strategies and development of long established/traditional travel service providers in Taiwan through business ecosystem analysis and scenario analysis. The findings and subsequent recommendations aim to bring breakthroughs from challenges caused by significant changes of the industry landscape and enable sustainable development. Varieties of research methodologies were adopted. The case studies of top three companies by market share were referenced. The business ecosystem of the travel industry in Taiwan was constructed through secondary data analysis and expert interviews. Development paths and characteristics of successful industry players were derived. Scenario analysis was adopted to discuss external drivers and discontinuities of the industry. Multi-dimensional matrices were used to analyze the potential impact of various levels of uncertainty. Three potential scenarios which might be faced by the industry were then defined and simulated. Finally, the research findings from both scenario analysis and business ecosystem analysis were used to investigate, comprehensively, the mid to long term development strategies for traditional travel service providers in Taiwan under different industry landscapes and circumstances. The purpose of this research is also to assist a traditional travel service provider, Company F, in the area of development strategy setting. The combination of business ecosystem analysis and economics as well as sociopolitical scenario simulation allows Company F to observe the future developments of the industry ecosystem in a systematic manner. In turn, strategizing responses appropriate to market development can be enabled.