人口結構轉變對中國糧食安全的影響

Abstract

糧食安全是二十一世紀全世界最為關切的議題之一。影響糧食安全最為重要的影響因素是人口。隨著計畫生育政策的推行，中國的人口成長大大放緩，但是由此帶來的是人口結構老化。本研究探討了人口結構變化對中國糧食安全的影響。在基於營養、健康和合理的飲食標準下，預測了中國的糧食需求量。在考慮氣候變遷和科技進步下，預測了中國的糧食產量。本研究的結論是：（1）考慮人口結構變化下的糧食安全要優於不考慮人口結構變化下的情況，並且兩者的差距隨著時間的推移變得越來越大；（2）未來中國的糧食安全水準會處於一個可以接受的水準，並且會變得越來越好，但是仍然面臨一系列的挑戰。並相應提出了五點政策建議：（1）保障種糧所需的耕地；（2）加快促進農業技術進步和農業基礎設施的建設；（3）理順糧食市場機制，加快促進農戶務農收入的增長；（4）合理控制工業用糧的增長，尤其是生物質能源的發展；（5）加強合理健康的糧食消費教育；（6）糧食安全政策重點應該向食品安全傾斜。

Food security is one of the most concerned issues in the world in 21st century. The most important factor that affects the food security is the population. With the birth control policy implementation, China's population growth slows down, however, the result is the aging of the population. This study investigates the impacts of demographic change on China’s food security. Based on the standards of nutrition, health and reasonable diet, the study predicts China's grain demand. And based on the climate change and the technological progress, the study predicts China's grain output. The conclusion of the study is: (1) the food security which is considered the demographic change will be better than that is not considered the demographic change, and the gap between the two situations will become more and more; (2) in the future, China's food security will be in an acceptable level, and will become better and better, but still faces a series of challenges. And the study puts forward five policy recommendations: (1) protect the farmland to guarantee the food production; (2) accelerate the technological progress and promote the basic construction of agricultural infrastructure; (3) improve the grain market mechanism, and promote the farming revenue to increase; (4) control the increasing of the industrial grain, especially the development of the biomass energy; (5) strengthen the rational and healthy food consumer education; (6) the food security policies should be focused on the food safety.