孩童存活率與壽命的改善，是否依然存在資本稀釋效果存在?

Abstract

此篇論文利用疊代模型去預測成長的孩童存活率 (child survival rate) 與增加的人口壽命率 (longevity rate) 對經濟成長的影響。 在假設孩童存活率與長壽率為外生的條件下, 此篇研究顯示增加的孩童存活率 對經濟成長有負影響, 然而壽命的增加對於經濟成長有正面的影響; 這顯示了資 本稀釋效果 (capital dilution) 的存在。 此外, 當孩童存活率足夠低以及存活率足夠長時, 會存在俱樂部收斂 (club convergence) 而導致多個穩定狀態 (steady states) 的存在。 如果長壽率比小孩存活率高出很多時, 最終會向好的穩定狀態收斂, 無論此經濟體的原始資本狀態從何開始。

This paper uses an overlapping generation model to predict effects of increases in child survival and adult longevity on GDP growth. Under assumption that both rates are exogenous, we show that increase in child survival leads to decreases in economic growth, while increase in adult longevity leads to increases in economic growth in this model; which suggests the existence of capital dilution. Furthermore, multiple steady states are generated with existence of club convergence as child survival rate is sufficiently low and adult longevity is sufficiently high. If longevity is sufficiently higher than child survival, a country will converge to good steady state no matter where it starts from. We also use empirical method to justify our results, and we find that capital dilution only significantly exists in non-developed countries.