中國大陸上市公司市盈率探討－銀行業實證分析

Abstract

金融是現代經濟的核心，而中國大陸的金融體系以銀行業為主導，銀行業在中國大陸金融體系中處於核心位置，是支持和促進國民經濟發展的重要命脈，在整個國民經濟體系中也佔據著十分重要的地位。從1978年改革開放開始推行至今已經歷30餘年，在這期間中國大陸銀行業取得了突出的發展，銀行業整體實力不斷提高，抗風險能力持續增強，公司治理狀況也在進一步改善，各類機構協調均衡發展。2004年以來，中國大陸政府大力推動國有銀行業股份改革、引進外國資本技術和改革組織，以降低國營人員工作不效率的問題，朝著「上市」、「商業化」及「股份化」發展，成功降低不良資產比率，並大幅提高放貸業務量。 中國大陸銀行業搭上了中國大陸每年接近10%的GDP成長率，企業及民間有大量資金的需求，造就一波經濟快速起飛的狀態，2005年至2010年每年平均的利潤約高達20~40%的成長率。但與獲利能力不相稱的地方，中國大陸銀行業這幾年來的股價表現疲弱，上市銀行類股市盈率約僅在4~8倍之間，明顯低於亞洲鄰國及歐美國家銀行水準（約10~25倍）和國內其他行業水準。 無論是在歐美發達國家的資本市場還是如中國大陸這樣的新興資本市場，市盈率指標都很受人關注。市盈率估值法是機構投資者和個人投資者最常用的估值方法之一，也是國外成熟的證券市場最常用的股票估值方法，具有簡單直觀、計算方便等優點。因此，市盈率指標非常值得我們去研究一番。 本研究將對中國大陸及其他國家銀行業的市盈率做分析，主要分為文獻探討和實證研究。本研究主要分析了影響中國大陸銀行業上市公司的市盈率水平的公司經營狀況和總體經濟環境之兩大因素。

Finance is the core of modern economy. Banks lead the financial system in China and they also play a role in supporting and accelerating the development of domestic economy. It lasts more than 30 years since the reform and opening in 1978. During these 30 years, the China banks developed in prosperity. The strengths increase as well as the ability to withstand risk. At the mean time, the corporate governance has improved and institutions stably worked. Since 2004, the China government promoted the reform of government-owned banks and introduced foreign techniques and reform organizations to solve the inefficiency of government employee problems. In the end, it successfully lowers bad debt ratio and also enhances loan business. Due to the rapid growth of China economy, the entrepreneurs have mass demand on capitals. With these capitals, they make a fortune. However, compared to the entrepreneurs, the profitability of China banks is still weak. The P/E ratio of listed banks in China is significantly lower than companies in other industry. This study compares the P/E ratio between China banks and non-China banks and it also concerns the factors that influence P/E ratio, including both firm specific and macro-economic factors.