海外資產曝險對銀行經營績效之影響─我國及新加坡銀行業之實證研究

Abstract

全球化趨勢下，銀行的競爭愈趨激烈，然而我國相對強大的經貿實力背後，金融產業特別是商業銀行的獲利能力卻不佳。相較之下，鄰近的國家新加坡則因政府支持，銀行積極往海外發展並提升其獲利比重。在此背景下，本文主要以海外資產比作為國際化指標，除我國銀行業者外，另納入新加坡銀行業者進行海外資產與銀行經營績效之關係的實證研究，以將我國與新加坡作一對照。 本文發展動態追蹤資料模型，以generalized method of moments, GMM估計有兩項主要目的：第一，解決內生問題：海外資產與銀行績效之間可能互為因果關係，也就是海外資產可能對績效有正面影響，而反之銀行績效愈佳，愈可能積極往海外發展，使海外資產增加。第二，加入應變數落後項於解釋變數當中，強調於考慮應變數落後項的解釋力之下，同時探討銀行海外資產對績效的影響。 台灣銀行業之實證結果顯示，海外資產占總資產比對於ROA呈現顯著影響，且係數為正，表示當海外資產占總資產比愈高，則銀行獲利能力ROA愈佳。而將海外資產依曝險程度區分為存款、放款、證券投資時，海外存款占總資產比愈高，ROA表現愈好；當以海外營收占總營收比為解釋變數時，我們發現對ROA亦有正向影響，與本研究預期相符。另外，以ROE為績效變數時，其結果與ROA差異不大。 新加坡的實證研究中，Panel Data的OLS和Arellano-Bond的估計都顯示，ROA、Tobin’s Q作為績效變數時，銀行規模整體對績效有負面顯著影響。海外資產方面，海外資產占總資產比對ROA、Tobin’s Q則呈現顯著正向影響，可見當海外資產占總資產比愈高，會計層面的績效ROA、市場評價層面的Tobin’s Q均有所提升。

Some research had revealed there is positive relation between operation performance and degree of internationalization, DOI. And due to the competition became more and more serious in Taiwan; people start to focus on the issue of overseas expanding. Therefore, we check the relation between “foreign assets to total asset” ratio and profit ability of Taiwanese banks. Besides, recently, Singapore had been noticed that their government gave banks a large amount of support, so we also gathered data of Singapore banks to be compared with Taiwanese banks. We use dynamic panel data and GMM to estimate, for solving the major two problems when considering the relation between overseas assets and operating performance: one is simultaneity and endogeneity; the other one is considering performance one period ahead as an explanatory variable. Our empirical result of Taiwan banking industry showed the higher the “foreign assets to total asset” ratio, the better the operating performance. When use “foreign revenue to total revenue” ratio as an indicator, the higher the ratio, the better the operating performance. When separating the foreign assets into three kinds of exposures: deposit, loans, and securities investment, the result revealed the higher the “foreign deposit to total deposit” ratio, the better the ROA. Another empirical result is of Singapore banking industry. When using ROA and Tobin’s Q as the performance indicators, we found that the higher the “foreign assets to total asset” ratio, the better the performance.