印尼總統蘇西洛與佐科威對中關係之比較研究

Abstract

印尼人口約2.62億人，為世界第四人口大國，擁有人口紅利的印尼，人口結構年輕化，國內消費力道旺盛，且擁有橡膠、煤礦等豐富天然資源，在全球資源儲量中排名第五，並預估印尼將在2050年成為全球GDP第四大國。印尼已然成為國際中備受關注的「未來大國」，在佐科威總統領導下刻正向美中兩大強權學習如何成為一個大國。 蘇西洛及佐科威總統是印尼蛻變成為潛力大國的兩位關鍵領導人，他們都肩負帶領印尼走向國際的責任與使命，蘇西洛在任十年期間對於印尼實現民主化帶來巨大貢獻，確保印尼民主正常化，並在政治外交與經濟上與中國大陸建立緊密合作關係，並高度依賴中國大陸各方面援助，形成對中扈從的態勢；佐科威則以平民之姿、商人之態及接地氣的親民作風，累積深厚民意基礎，佐科威體認國家利益高於一切之上，印尼不能單一仰賴任一大國，因此，在美中兩大強權之中游移互不得罪，並從中謀取最大國家利益。 本論文藉由研究蘇西洛及佐科威兩位總統執政風格及對中國大陸政策形成，並以佐科威政府對中政策的演變為研究主軸，說明印尼從蘇西洛政府時期印中扈從演變為佐科威政府時期軟硬兼施中立制衡政策的形成與轉變，以及探討未來將如何影響印尼對中關係之走向及中國大陸與印尼深化合作關係之動機與意圖。 對臺灣而言，印尼為新南向政策重點國家之一，尤其現任總統佐科威過去經商期間曾多次赴臺洽商，對我政經文化發展有極佳印象，因此，深入研究中共與印尼發展關係，對未來臺印尼合作具有重要意義。

Indonesia is the fourth largest country in the world with demographic dividend from a population of approximately 262 million people, and has a young population structure and strong domestic consumption. In addition, Indonesia reserves rich natural resources such as rubber and coal mines, ranked the fifth in the world, and is estimated to be the world’s fourth largest economy by GDP in 2050. Indonesia has become a 'potential power in the future', attracting the international community’s attention. Meanwhile, under President Jokowi’s leadership, Indonesia is learning from the United States and China, the two major powers in the world, to become a great country. President Susilo and Jokowi are the two key leaders in transforming Indonesia into a big country. They both took their responsibilities and missions to lead Indonesia to move forward to the international stage. During the ten-year tenure, Susilo made great contributions to implement democratization in Indonesia, ensured the normalization of democracy, established close cooperative relations with China in the fields of politics, foreign affairs and economy, greatly relied on China’s assistance in all fronts, and bandwagoned with China; Jokowi is a businessman from a common family, and is close to the people, so that he could accumulate foundation of public opinion. He also recognizes that national interests are above all else, so that he would not rely on any major powers, and maintain good relations with the two major powers of the United States and China, respectively, as well as seeks the greatest national interests from them. By studying the ruling styles and policies toward China of the two presidents Susilo and Jokowi, and taking Jokowi administration policy toward China as the main axis of research, this paper illustrates the formation and transformation of Indonesia's bandwagoning with China during the Susilo administration to the policy of neutrality and balance during the Jokowi administration, as well as explores the factors that affect the developments of Indonesia-China relations and the motivations and intentions for the two countries to deepen cooperation. As far as Taiwan is concerned, Indonesia is one of the key countries of the New Southbound Policy, especially the current President Jokowi has visited Taiwan many times in the past for business. He has an excellent impression of Taiwan’s political, economic and cultural developments. Therefore, further studies in the developments of Indonesia-China relations are of great significance to the future cooperation between Taiwan and Indonesia.