以R-SCP模型分析中國移動電信產業前景

Abstract

中國移動通信的用戶數在2001年8月超過1.2億，超過美國躍居為世界第一大通信市場，中國成為舉世行動業者的焦點，到2012年4月底用戶數突破10.3億。面對這個全球最大且成長最快速的市場，各國電信產業相關業者，該如何洞悉這龐大的商機與中國三大電信商展開合作的經營模式，奠定經營策略的發展方向，並在中國的電信市場佔有一席之地，對電信產業相關業者是一重要的課題。 有鑑於此，本研究以R-SCP模型分析中國電信運營產業，藉以揭示中國移動電信產業發展的前景，以利移動電信產業相關業者規劃可行之商機。 本研究詳細分析了在政府(產業)法規主導下，中國電信運營產業的市場結構，以及企業行為的特徵、市場績效的情況。研究成果主要有以下幾個方面： 整體而言，中國政府透過法規對移動通信業直接塑造市場結構的主要思維，主要在促進其電信產業整體升級、提高綜合競爭力、實現國際化發展和企業創新。 中國移動目前仍是一家獨大。由於握有TD系統且政府對TD政策性的獎勵與支持，因此在國際市場開拓方面具領先地位。未來投資重點集中在移動通信網投資及加強傳輸網基礎資源儲備。策略上以TD3G技術帶動2G客戶，並向TD4G系統前進，市場發展將聚焦於移動互聯網。 中國聯通資本支出重點是3G、寬頻和資料、基礎設施傳輸網。開發高端優質客戶，扭轉品牌形象。業務發展聚焦客戶規模增長及產品創新變革。 中國電信未來的投資重點是寬頻網路、創新和服務，業務發展朝中高低端產品全面擴張。 預估中國的2G手機市場還有一段時間的榮景；在頻寬技術帶動下，商品的集中度確定往3G及4G業務的方向發展，目前3G產品差異化漸漸縮小，價格戰將會持續進行。預計互聯網服務市場逐漸具體形成後，三家營運商的經濟績效可能重新分配。中國移動通信政策明顯向TD獎勵保護。TD系統雖具開發國際市場的優勢，中國移動能否有效將2G的客戶移轉至TD3G及4G並順利打開國際市場，值得持續關注。

In August 2001, the users of China Mobile Communications were over 120 million that was more than the United States. China had become the focus of the world mobile industry and ranked as the world's largest communications market. In the end of April 2012 China mobile users already exceeded 1.03 billion. Facing to this world largest and fastest growing market, how the related mobile vendors should insight into this huge business opportunities to collaborate with China's three major carriers, and effectively operate and generate good profit, get position in the China telecom market, and lay a sustainable direction of strategic development that is an important topic for the related mobile industry. In view of this, Chinese telecom operators had been analyzed by using R-SCP model to reveal the prospective of China mobile telecommunications industry, and to facilitate for related mobile telecom industry to plan a viable business opportunities. In this study, under the auspices of the Government industry regulations, the industry market structure of the Chinese telecom operators, as well as the characteristics of corporate conduct in different market structure and market performance had been detail analyzed. The research results are mainly in the following aspects: Overall on the mobile communications industry, Chinese government has been directly to shape the market structure through the laws and regulations, to promote the overall upgrade on its telecommunications industry, as well as to improve the comprehensive competitiveness on international development and corporate innovation. China Mobile is still the dominant one who holds the TD system. Government policy had incentives and support on the TD to open up aspects of a leading position in the international market. Future investments focus will be on the mobile communication network and strengthen the transmission network the basis of resource reserves. Strategy will lead 2G customers driven by TD3G technology, and then greatly jump to the TD4G system onward. Business and market development will be focused on the mobile Internet. China Unicom's capital expenditure will be focused on 3G, broadband and information, infrastructure and transport network. Reversing its brand image will be expected by the development of high-quality, high-end customers. Business development focus will be on the growth of customers’ scale, product innovation and change. China Telecom's investment in the future will be focused on broadband, innovation and service, and overall expansion of business development towards to the high and low end products. The degree of concentration of telecommunications shifted to commodity market development will be towards to 3G services, and then quickly moving towards 4G, and China Mobile can effectively migrate 2G to TD3G customers and smooth access to international markets worthy of sustained attention. Boom forecast of China's 2G mobile market will be sustained some time. By broadband technology driven, the concentration degree on the goods will be firmly to the direction of 3G and 4G business development. Current 3G product differentiation will be gradually narrowed, the price war between will be ongoing. Estimated after internet service market has been formed concrete and gradually, the market sharing of these three operators may be re-allocated. The policy of China Mobile is obviously to protect TD, although TD system gets the advantage to develop international markets, but if China Mobile can effectively migrate their 2G customers to TD3G, TD4G and successfully open the international market? It is worthy of paying attention to.