兩岸和平協議的政策分析

Abstract

傳統上對於和平的詮釋是消弭戰爭與暴力，學者將之稱為「負面和平」，因為這種和平狀態是建立在相互嚇阻的恐怖平衡之上。在這種邏輯下，兩岸關係連這樣的和平都難以達致，因為台灣並不具備足以嚇阻中共的能力。世界上許多國家，處於強鄰的威脅或支配關係之下，即便沒有軍事衝突，但國家時常面臨生存壓力，而和平並不操之在己。 近代學者對於和平研究提出了反省，認為消除結構性暴力、追求社會公義與肯定生命尊嚴的這種價值觀，才是「正面和平」。因為和平狀態是建立在彼此對於上述價值的信仰與追求，因此得以控制衝突。 在對於和平研究有了粗淺認識的背景下，本研究對於馬英九總統拋出的兩岸和平協議進行本質上的檢視，採取學者拉斯威爾提出的政策系絡研究途徑，並選擇文獻分析法、比較研究法與深度訪談法做為本論文的研究方法。本研究首先分析國際上的經驗案例，找出若干模式做為兩岸和平協議的參照。其次，將環繞於簽署和平協議的政策決策的種種因素擇要歸納整理，爬梳其因果關係，並依次在論文的後半部進行分析。論文的最後提出研究發現與對研究不足之處的檢討，並站在台灣的角度提出了政策性建議，期許自己在各界先進的努力之下也略盡棉薄之力，希望有朝一日，台灣能找出一條真正的和平之道。

In classical definition, “Peace” is meant to terminate war and violence. Researchers name this state as “Negative Peace,” because it is built on mutual deterrence and balance of terror. However, China and Taiwan are far from this statement of peace. That’s because Taiwan is lack of political or military power to deter China. Many countries live in a threatened or controlled relationship among strong and ambitious neighbors. Although without military conflict, relatively weak countries face pressure of existence all the time. Modern scholars propose reflection on the classical definition. They consider a more positive manner on this word “peace.” Which refer to eliminate structural violence, pursuing justice societies, and confirming human dignities. This is much more than the traditional concept about peace. And we can call it “Positive Peace.” It’s built on these values and it makes all the conflicts to be controlled. Based on the study of peace issues, I examine the essence of Cross-Strait Peace Agreement which is proposes by President Ma. I choose the policy contextual research approach, which is proposed by Lasswell, H. D., and literature analysis, comparative research and depth interview as the research methods of this thesis. First of all, I review and analyze some cases of international peace-building experiences. I conclude several models to be the examples of Cross-Strait Peace Agreement. Secondly, I try to find all factors that would affect the decision-making about Cross-Strait Peace Agreement. Thirdly, I analyze the causal relationships between those factors step by step. And finally, I point out the limit of this thesis and propose policy recommendations in the standpoint of Taiwan. I wish this piece of work could bring some different points and ideas on this issue for future researchers. And I expect some day our country could find a practical way to peace.