兩岸統合可能模式的探討： 歐盟模式與不均等聯邦制對兩岸適用之比較

Abstract

迄今兩岸間分治逾60載，自2008年海基會與海協會重新恢復會談後，兩岸經濟及民間交流大步拓展，兩岸關係朝正面方向發展；惟北京迄未揚棄「一個中國」原則，並緊守而不願跳脫傳統的國家主權觀，導致兩岸關係發展一直無法獲得重大突破，兩岸關係發展需要創新前瞻思路。 觀諸當前現有西方政治制度，均無法完全適用於兩岸關係，故本論文試圖藉由比較研究及新制度主義之研究途徑，結合經驗性比較政治與規範性分析研判，試著從較貼近兩岸關係發展之歐盟與不均等聯邦制的歷史軌跡與經驗中，探尋值得參用於兩岸關係的可能統合模式。 研究發現，歐盟與不均等聯邦制經由長時期文化、經貿交流及政治談判，終能達成「統合而非統一，分治而不獨立」目標，為將其「內邦外聯」等特色參用於兩岸而又避免落於聯邦制等思維，故著者稱之為「兩岸不均等的統合模式」；即兩岸在大小實力懸殊下，採行由下而上、先易後難方式，透過新制度主義途徑，透過非正式制度積累足夠的互信後，再進一步擴大至外交、軍事等正式制度磋商，另須凝聚各自內部共識，並爭取美、日、歐等重要國家與國際社會的支持，方能促使兩岸朝統合之路邁進。 馬總統提出負面表列的「三不」主張後，迄今雖有效緩和兩岸緊張關係，但仍非解決兩岸問題定位之長遠規畫，故未來無法避免透過長時間交流及談判，為兩岸關係構建出一系列政治性制度安排。鑑於兩岸關係動能的絕對性，而人類經驗智能的相對性，冀望本論文能對瞬息萬變之兩岸關係發展做出前瞻性研究，發揮拋磚引玉之效。

China and Taiwan have separated for 63 years. Since restoring talks between the Straits Exchange Foundation（ROC） and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits（PRC）in 2008, economic and public interactions have taken a huge step forward. The Cross-strait relationship develops positively as the diplomatic war ease up slowly. However, it is still difficult for Beijing to discard its “One China” policy, thus preventing a significant breakthrough between the two countries. Moreover, the existing western political institutions cannot apply to the cross-strait relationship. Therefore, this paper attempts to use neo-institutionalism research approach, along with the empirical politics comparison and regulated analysis approach, using the model of integration to search for a peaceful development in the cross-strait relations. To search for a peaceful long term relationship across-strait and make a breakthrough, it will require new thought, new channel, and a different pattern. For above reasons, it is discovered that Europe Union and Federacy patterns, are helpful and innovative to build a new framework between Taiwan and China. Furthermore, the neo-institutionalism approach along with the federacy pattern stated above is worth referring to when it comes to constitutional arrangement, share severity, diplomatic recognition issues etc. According to such patterns and experiences; deliberately deal with concrete matters and progress step by step, will assist in pursuing a win-win solution under the principle of “Intergration without Unification, Separation without independence.” The research has found, though the federacy patterns were formed systematically under different background, nevertheless, through long term blending of cultures, economic trading exchanges and political negotiations will finally lead to a win-win solution. What must be understood is we are not seeking for the unification of homogeneity, but the diversity of integration. Since President Ma assumed presidency, he has proposed the “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” and “flexible diplomacy” view, leading Beijing to gradually realized the importance of mutual trust and peace, thus the international community starts to believe that Taiwan is not a trouble maker but is a peaceful creator, building a harmonious atmosphere for the Cross Straits relationship. However, the negative tabulation of the “three no’s” stated above by President Ma, is insufficient to solve the Cross Strait problem. In future, the need of long term negotiation is inevitable, and the construction of a series of political system arrangements will be necessary as well. In consideration of the certainty in the sustainable development between the two countries, along with the relativity of human’s experience and intelligence, this thesis will research on the basis of the transient relationship in the cross-strait relationship, and aim to display a few proactive yet valuable remarks.