競選策略動態模型：以2008年總統選舉候選人馬英九為例

Abstract

本研究整合了政治學、傳播學、行銷理論及組織人際網絡觀點，建構一個理論性的「動態模型」，描述由候選人團隊組成的「競選系統」，在所處的戰場環境中，如何透過戰情分析、戰略擬定、空中轟炸與地面作戰的戰術執行、戰鬥攻擊等，與競爭者的策略一起對選民發生作用，這些作用經由回饋效應，重塑戰場環境，讓候選人擬定新策略，不斷循環，直到投票日當天分出勝負爲止。 筆者以2008年總統選舉進行時的「觀察法」爲經、選舉結束後的「訪談法」爲緯，經由質化研究法，證明動態模型確實可解釋競選策略的制定過程；另一方面，筆者以選舉民意調查的「個體資料」爲主、村里開票紀錄的「總體資料」爲輔，透過統計方法，分別驗證空中轟炸與地面作戰的策略效果。 質化與量化並重的研究發現，「青春鐵馬」與「LONG STAY」對馬英九的候選人定位，確實產生部分效果，但這些效果以維持爲主，並未開拓新票源；「一中市場」或「返聯公投」降低馬英九被抹紅的風險，化解了競爭者的攻擊力道；「綠卡事件」與「藍委踢館事件」衝擊不大，只是短期效應，競爭者只達到鞏固原本選票的目的。整體來說，馬英九從2007年7月至2008年2月，空中轟炸戰術的淨策略效果，大約是7.0個百分點。 在地面作戰方面，馬英九的組織動員除了鞏固傳統國民黨地盤，還有效地突破民進黨的封鎖，在藍綠競爭激烈區、淺綠區都能領先競爭者，是致勝關鍵。

This research tries to construct a “Dynamic Model” for campaign strategy by integrating theories in political science, communications, marketing, and social networking. Candidates in intense elections have to campaign by analyzing battleground situation, formulating strategies, executing air bombardment and ground war tactics, launch combat in order to impact their voters. These attempts affect the voters, restructure the battleground, and in return, help the candidates to reformulate new strategies. These campaigns strategies follow an ongoing circular motion that only comes to a halt on the election day. The study employed qualitative research methods to show that the “Dynamic Model” can indeed formulate the process of campaign decisions during the 2008 presidential election in Taiwan. The research is based on interviews with campaign managers and staffs of candidate Ma and numerous first-hand observations as a major newspaper correspondent to the election. With statistical data collected from election polls and data of election results, the study tries to exemplify the corresponding effects from the air bombardment and ground war tactics. The analysis shows that both “Young Cycling” and “Long Stay” campaigns only sustained voters’ support but failed to expand significantly. Strategies made in “One-China Market” and “Return to the U.N. Referendum” were effective in confusing DPP’s strategies and keeping Ma from discredit. Incidents in “The Green Card Controversy” and “Blue Legislators Intrusion into Rival Campaign Office” were proved to have only short-term impact and did not crumble Ma’s support. In brief, from July 2007 to February 2008, net campaign effect of Ma’s air bombardment tactics were estimated to have a 7 percentage point gain. In terms of ground war tactics, Ma’s strategies not only effectively secure supports from pan-blue areas but also significantly ambush pan-green territories. Ma’s final lead in light-green and break-even areas turns out to be the key factor of his landslide victory.