台灣與其主要貿易對手國間有效保護水準之測定

Abstract

台灣於2002年1月1日成為世界貿易組織（WTO）會員後，須逐步消除貿易障礙，此將導致生產結構與貿易型態的調整，而帶動生產要素需求的改變，進而影響附加價值的變動。本文由以特定要素理論為基礎，並考慮短期內，資本不易在產業間自由移動的特性，採用全球貿易分析（Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP）模型，分別進行台灣與其主要貿易對手-中國、美國、歐盟和日本之關稅減讓政策模擬，以測定貿易自由化對台灣與對其主要貿易對手有效保護水準之影響，並探討重要產業部門之有效保護率，同時比較其名目保護率和有效保護率。 本文透過「名目進口關稅稅率」、「傳統有效保護率」及「一般均衡之有效保護率」等三種不同的保護指標加以分析比較。為了避免所計算之「傳統有效保護率」及「一般均衡之有效保護率」有兩極化的誤差，特別考慮了非貿易中間投入的影響。 實證結果顯示，在名目上台灣與中國均重視的產品部門有「汽車及其零件」及「飲料及菸草製品」。而實質上台灣對於「汽車及其零件」之保護水準高於中國甚多，而台灣對「飲料及菸草製品」實質上之保護程度卻遠低於中國。 美國在名目關稅稅率上，高於10％之產品有「糖」、「酪乳製品」及「皮革製品」，而台灣只有「糖」和美國一樣是高度保護的。 歐盟在名目關稅稅率上，高於10％之產品有「糖」、「加工米」、「稻米」及「屠體肉」，其「一般均衡之有效保護率」亦呈現高度保護的狀況，即使名目關稅稅率不高甚至是0的部門，其一般均衡之有效保護率仍為正，顯示即使名目關稅降得再低，仍有利於該國部分產業之特定要素。 日本的農業關稅結構和台灣相當類似，皆對部分農產品，課以相當高的名目關稅稅率，因此其一般均衡之有效保護率也相當高。

Taiwan has become a member of the World Trade Organization since January 1, 2002. It has to eliminate trade barrier gradually. This will lead to the adjustment on the production structure and trade patterns. It also leads to a change on the demand of production factors. These will have a further impact on the change of the value added. Based on the specific factors theory and considering the immobility of the capital among industrial sectors in short run, this study will apply the Global Trade Analysis Project model to simulate the policies of the tariff reduction in Taiwan and its major trading partners such as China, U.S., EU, and Japan, to measure the impact on the effective protection rate of the trade liberalization in Taiwan and its main trade partners, and to examine the effective protection rate for the important industrial sectors at the same time to compare its nominal protection rate and effective protection rate. This study use three different protection rates such as nominal tariff rate, traditional effective rate of protection, and effective rate of protection in general equilibrium to analyze the comparison. To avoid extreme bias on the calculation of the traditional effective rate of protection, and effective rate of protection in general equilibrium, it has considered the impacts of the nontraded intermediate inputs particularly. The empirical results indicated that the highly protected sectors for Taiwan and China are the motor vehicles and parts, and the beverages and tobacco products on the nominal term. But the effective rate of protection on the motor vehicles and parts in Taiwan is much higher than that in China while the effective rate of protection on the beverages and tobacco products in Taiwan is not as high as that in China. For the U.S., sugar, dairy products, and leather products have nominal tariff rate of more than 10%. But the effective rates of protection in general equilibrium term on sugar, dairy products, meat of cattle, sheep, goats, and horse, and leather products are higher than other sectors. For the EU, the product sectors on the nominal tariff rate more than 10% are sugar, processed rice, paddy rice, and meat of cattle, sheep, goats, and hors. It is also shown that even if the nominal tariff rate is very low, it still has advantageous to protect the industry with very high effective tariff . Agricultural tariff structure in Japan is quite similar with Taiwan. With a quite high of the nominal tariff rate on the partial agricultural products in both countries, therefore, Japan also has a quite high effective rate of protection in general equilibrium.