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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 劉啟群 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Chi-Chun Liu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 馮熾煒 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Chih-Wei Feng | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-08-26T16:15:48Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2026-08-27 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2026-08-26 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2026 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2026-07-22 00:00:00 | - |
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The Journal of Impact and ESG Investing, 1(1), 76–93. https://doi.org/10.3905/jesg.2020.1.1.076. Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset (3rd ed.). Wiley. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/Inv3ed.htm. Deloitte. (2026). IAS 36 - Impairment of assets. IAS Plus. https://www.iasplus.com/en/standards/ias/ias36. Feliciano, R. J., Boué, G., & Membré, J.-M. (2020). Overview of the potential impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of the dairy industry. Foods, 9(12), Article 1794. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods9121794. Financial Supervisory Commission. (2023). FSC releases roadmap for Taiwan listed companies to align with IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards. Press release. https://www.fsc.gov.tw/en/home.jsp?id=54&parentpath=0,2&mcustomize=multimessage_view.jsp&dataserno=202308180001&dtable=News. Financial Supervisory Commission. (2025). Regulations governing information to be published in annual reports of public companies: Sustainability-related financial information. Regulatory release. https://www.fsc.gov.tw. Giglio, S., Maggiori, M., Rao, K., Stroebel, J., Weber, A., & Van Nieuwerburgh, S. (2021). Climate change and long-run discount rates: Evidence from real estate. The Review of Financial Studies, 34(8), 3527–3571. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab032. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. (2024). Implementation Guidance for Climate Disclosures under HKEX ESG Reporting Framework. https://www.hkex.com.hk/-/media/HKEX-Market/Listing/Rules-and-Guidance/Environmental-Social-and-Governance/Exchanges-guidance-materials-on-ESG/guidance_enhanced_climate_dis.pdf IFRS Foundation. (2023). Basis for Conclusions on IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. International Sustainability Standards Board. https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards-issb/english/2023/issued/issbs2-bc.html IFRS Foundation. (2023). IFRS S2 climate-related disclosures. International Sustainability Standards Board. https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s2-climate-related-disclosures/. International Accounting Standards Board. (2021). IAS 36 impairment of assets. IFRS Foundation. https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/pdf-standards/english/2021/issued/part-a/ias-36-impairment-of-assets.pdf. Kabundi, A., Mlachila, M., & Yao, J. (2022). How persistent are climate-related price shocks? Implications for monetary policy (IMF Working Paper No. 22/207). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400223556.001. Kantar Worldpanel Taiwan. (2025). Taiwan yogurt and drinking yogurt market consumption dynamics: Premiumization trends under clean-label commitments, MAT M25Q2 update [Consumer insights report]. Kantar Worldpanel Taiwan. https://www.kantarworldpanel.com/. Koller, T., Goedhart, M., & Wessels, D. (2020). Valuation: Measuring and managing the value of companies (7th ed.). Wiley. KPMG. (2024a). The impact of climate-related matters on impairment testing of non-current assets: Discount rate. KPMG IFRG. https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/ifrg/2024/qa-climate-impairment-discount-rate-ias-36.html. KPMG. (2024b). The impact of climate-related matters on impairment testing of non-current assets: Cash flow projections. KPMG IFRG. https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/ifrg/2024/qa-climate-impairment-cash-flows-ias-36.html. KPMG. (2025). Climate change and impairment: Practical guide to impairment testing under IAS 36. KPMG International. https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/ifrg/2025/climatechange-impairment-testing-ias36.html. Letta, M., Montalbano, P., & Pierre, G. (2022). Weather shocks, traders’ expectations, and food prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(3), 1100–1119. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12258. Ministry of Agriculture. (2025). Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) database: Daily wholesale transaction logs for fruit crop code 45 (strawberries). Executive Yuan, Taiwan. https://amis.moa.gov.tw. National Animal Industry Foundation. (2015). Taiwan livestock and dairy product procurement price statistics monthly. NAIF Historical Data Archives. http://price.naif.org.tw/. National Science and Technology Council & Ministry of Environment. (2024). Climate change in Taiwan: National scientific report 2024. https://tccip.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/ScientificReport2024/index_eng.aspx. Serafeim, G., Zochowski, T. R., & Downing, J. (2019). Impact-weighted financial accounts: The missing piece for an impact economy. Harvard Business School. https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=59129. S&P Capital IQ. (2026). Guideline public company market data and valuation multiples for selected dairy and food companies. Database extract. Retrieved March 26, 2026, from S&P Capital IQ. Siggelkow, N. (2007). Persuasion with case studies. Academy of Management Journal, 50(1), 20–24. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2007.24160882. Sobehy, K. M. H., Ben Mahjoub, L., & Gabsi, S. (2026). How do IFRS S2 climate risks affect IAS 36 impairments? A constructive accounting framework calibrated to European steel. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(4), Article 272. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19040272. St-Pierre, N. R., Cobanov, B., & Schnitkey, G. (2003). Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries. Journal of Dairy Science, 86(E. Suppl.), E52–E77. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)74040-5. West, J. W. (2003). Effects of heat stress on production in dairy cattle. Journal of Dairy Science, 86(6), 2131–2144. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)73803-X. Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262232586/econometric-analysis-of-cross-section-and-panel-data/. | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/104388 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究旨在回應國際財務報導準則第S2號（IFRS S2）之揭露要求，針對企業實體氣候風險建立一套權益價值評估架構，以回應臺灣頂級乳品產業中「氣候與金融轉譯」（Climate-Finance Translation）之方法學缺口。本模型應用於去識別化之 pre-IPO 精品優格個案公司「Crown Select」。該公司近期完成銀行融資之產能擴張後，面臨高度氣候敏感之生乳與鮮果採購曝險。方法上，本研究將分位數情境建構方法與確定性股東自由現金流量（Free Cash Flow to Equity, FCFE）評價方法相結合。在主要無成本轉嫁下行情境邊界（k = 0）下，本架構得以隔離並檢視採購成本壓力對毛利率、現金流量、權益價值及償債韌性之直接影響。
個案模型結果顯示，生乳採購成本占銷貨收入具一定重要性；在生乳P99極端採購壓力情境下，權益價值較基準情境出現明顯折減。雖然各情境之模型現金流量檢核仍為正數，但生乳P99情境下投產首年的償債備付率（Debt Service Coverage Ratio, DSCR）已降至接近內部預警水準，顯示信用安全邊際明顯收窄。因此，當前瞻DSCR接近管理階層設定之內部預警門檻時，可考慮啟動限制盈餘分配等治理措施。由於本研究採用之股東自由現金流量（FCFE）評價方法已反映利息及本金償還等融資活動，各情境下之權益價值應解讀為股權層級的風險篩選結果，而非IAS 36下資產或現金產生單位之使用價值（Value in Use, VIU）。若執行正式IAS 36減損測試，應將氣候資訊所反映之銷貨成本壓力重新套用至CGU層級、融資前的現金流量，以維持融資中性原則。 整體而言，本研究示範如何將氣候相關揭露假設連結至評價、償債分析、採購風險管理及財務報導判斷，並為 pre-IPO 盡職調查與氣候避險採購策略提供可審查之量化決策支持。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This thesis develops an IFRS S2-oriented equity valuation framework to quantify corporate physical climate risks and address the Climate-Finance Translation gap in Taiwan’s premium dairy sector. The framework is applied to Crown Select, an anonymized pre-IPO boutique yogurt brand with climate-sensitive raw milk and fresh-fruit procurement exposures following a recent debt-financed capacity expansion. Methodologically, the study integrates quantile-based commodity price-stress scenarios with a deterministic Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) valuation approach. Under the primary no-pass-through downside boundary (k = 0), the framework isolates the direct effects of procurement-cost stress on margins, cash flows, equity value, and debt-service resilience.
The case-model results indicate that raw milk represents a meaningful share of sales and is the dominant climate-sensitive procurement channel. Under the raw-milk P99 stress scenario, equity value declines materially relative to the climate-blind baseline. Although the workbook cash-flow check remains positive across all modeled scenarios, first-year Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) declines to a level near the internal watch threshold under raw-milk severe stress, indicating materially reduced credit headroom. This result supports proactive governance measures, such as restricting discretionary distributions when forward-looking DSCR approaches an internally defined governance watch threshold. Because the FCFE approach incorporates interest and principal repayments, the resulting scenario-specific equity values should be interpreted as equity-level risk-screening outputs rather than direct asset-level Value in Use measurements under IAS 36. A formal IAS 36 impairment test would require the climate-informed COGS stress to be re-applied to management-approved, CGU-level cash flows before financing activities. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2026-08-26T16:15:48Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2026-08-26T16:15:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書 I
致謝 II 中文摘要 III THESIS ABSTRACT IV Table of Contents VI List of Figures VIII List of Tables IX Chapter 1. Introduction and Regulatory Context 1 1.1 Background and Motivation 1 1.2 Core Legal Basis: IFRS S2 Paragraphs 16 and 22 3 1.3 Case Context: Taiwan's Premium Yogurt Market & “Crown Select” 5 1.4 Research Questions, Objectives, and Analytical Expectations 8 1.5 Scope and Boundary Conditions 12 1.6 Chapter Summary and Thesis Structure 15 Chapter 2. Literature Review and Conceptual Framework 17 2.1 Integrated Climate-Finance Translation Framework 17 2.2 Climate Disclosure, Scenario Analysis, and Enterprise Risk Governance 19 2.3 Agricultural and Commodity Price Transmission 23 2.4 Valuation Methodology and Private-Company Financial Translation 25 2.5 Accounting Connectivity: IFRS S2 and IAS 36 27 2.6 Conceptual Summary and Research Positioning 29 Chapter 3. Methodology and Empirical Strategy 32 3.0 Case Study Design and Research Logic 32 3.1 Case Selection and Unit of Analysis 32 3.2 Data Sources and Triangulation 34 3.3 Management Interview Protocol and Evidence Use 35 3.4 Commodity Price Scenario Construction 37 3.5 Financial Translation and FCFE Valuation Model 38 3.6 Assumption Governance and Model Boundaries 40 3.7 Sensitivity Analysis Design and FCFE-Supported Valuation Logic 42 3.8 Research Ethics, Anonymization, and Reflexivity 45 Chapter 4. Results and Analysis 46 4.1 Commodity Regression Calibration and Forecasting 46 4.2 Normalized Historical Financial Profile and Baseline Forecast 50 4.3 FCFE-Supported Hybrid Equity Valuation and DCF Mechanics 55 4.4 Procurement-Cost Climate Stress and Valuation Downside 62 4.5 Debt-Service Resilience, Sensitivity Interpretation, and Accounting Connectivity 66 Chapter 5. Strategic Management Implications, Financial Resilience, and Accounting Connectivity 72 5.1 Strategic Management Implications: Operationalizing Resilience under IFRS S2 Paragraph 22 73 5.2 Financial Accounting Connectivity and Asset Impairment under IAS 36 81 5.3 Input-Quality Challenges and Taiwan Regulatory Policy Implications 83 5.4 Methodological Limitations and Future Research Pathways 85 5.5 Research Question Responses and Final Synthesis 86 References 88 Appendix 93 List of Figures Figure 2-1: Climate-Finance Translation Workflow 18 Figure 2-2: IFRS S2–IAS 36 Valuation and Accounting Connectivity Map 28 Figure 4-1: Commodity Price-Stress Calibration and 2030 Scenario Endpoints 50 Figure 4-2: Historical Performance and Climate-Blind Baseline Forecast 54 Figure 4-3: Financial Materiality versus Tail Volatility by Input Category 64 Figure 4-4: Equity Value Erosion under Climate Procurement-Stress Scenarios 68 Figure 4-5: Annual DSCR Heatmap under the 15-Year Repayment Schedule 71 Figure 5-1: Equity-Value Mitigation from Fresh-Fruit Prepayment Structures 77 Figure 5-2: First-Year DSCR Headroom across Repayment Tenors 79 List of Tables Table 1-1: Challenge Framing Summary 2 Table 1-2: Regulatory Connectivity Summary 3 Table 1-3: IFRS S2 Requirement and Financial Modeling Implication 5 Table 1-4: Case Risk Exposure Summary 7 Table 1-5: Rationale for Selecting FCFE rather than FCFF 9 Table 1-6: Research Questions, Objectives, and Analytical Expectations 11 Table 1-7: Research Scope and Boundary Conditions 12 Table 1-8: Thesis Structure and Chapter Linkage 16 Table 2-1: Climate Disclosure Stream and Thesis Operationalization 21 Table 2-2: Four Literature Streams and Operationalization Map 29 Table 3-1: Case Selection Logic and Analytical Relevance 33 Table 3-2: Management Interview Evidence and Model Assumption Linkage 36 Table 3-3: Assumption Governance Summary 42 Table 3-4: Sensitivity Analysis Design Overview 43 Table 4-1: Regression Data Cutoff and 2025 Base-Year Inputs 46 Table 4-2: Deseasonalized Monthly Price Regression Diagnostics 47 Table 4-3: Deseasonalized Residual Shock Quantiles 48 Table 4-4: 2025 Base-Year Scenario Endpoint and Implied CAGR 49 Table 4-5: Smoothed Procurement Price Trajectories for Raw Milk (NTD/kg) 49 Table 4-6: Smoothed Wholesale Price Trajectories for Strawberries (NTD/kg) 49 Table 4-7A: Crown Select Normalized Historical Income Statement 52 Table 4-7B: Crown Select Normalized Historical Balance Sheet 52 Table 4-8: Climate-Blind Baseline Forecast 54 Table 4-9: Key DCF and FCFE Formulas 55 Table 4-10: FCFE Bridge and Terminal Equity Value 57 Table 4-11: Debt Repayment Schedule Used in FCFE Model 58 Table 4-12: Key Baseline Valuation Parameters 58 Table 4-13: Baseline Equity Value Sensitivity Matrix 59 Table 4-14: Cost of Equity Build-Up Used in FCFE Valuation 61 Table 4-15: Exit Multiple Calibration and Reasonableness Check 62 Table 4-16: Input Cost Exposure and Gross Margin Impact under Procurement Stress 63 Table 4-17: Climate Procurement-Stress Valuation Impact 65 Table 4-18: Annual DSCR Diagnostic under 15-Year Scheduled Debt Repayment 68 Table 4-19: Annual DSCR Diagnostic under 12-Year Repayment Sensitivity 69 Table 4-20: Annual DSCR Diagnostic under 10-Year Repayment Sensitivity 70 Table 4-21: Key Findings Summary 71 Table 5-1: Integrated Strategic Resilience Roadmap and Monitoring KPI 73 Table 5-2: Prepayment Valuation Mitigation Matrix for Fresh-Fruit Sourcing 76 Table 5-3: Debt Repayment-Tenor Decision Rule Based on DSCR Resilience 79 Table 5-4: Policy Proposal for Improving IFRS S2 Input Quality 84 Table 5-5: Methodological Limitations and Future Research Extensions 85 Table 5-6: Research Questions, Evidence, Findings, and Management Implications 87 | - |
| dc.language.iso | en | - |
| dc.subject | 國際財務報導準則第S2號（IFRS S2） | - |
| dc.subject | 實體氣候風險 | - |
| dc.subject | 股東自由現金流量（FCFE） | - |
| dc.subject | 權益評價 | - |
| dc.subject | 國際會計準則第36號（IAS 36） | - |
| dc.subject | 償債備付率（DSCR） | - |
| dc.subject | IFRS S2 | - |
| dc.subject | physical climate risk | - |
| dc.subject | Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) | - |
| dc.subject | equity valuation | - |
| dc.subject | IAS 36 impairment | - |
| dc.subject | Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) | - |
| dc.title | IFRS S2下氣候相關財務風險量化： 應用於臺灣頂級乳品產業之權益價值評估架構 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Quantifying Climate-Related Financial Risks under IFRS S2: An Equity Valuation Framework Applied to Taiwan’s Premium Dairy Sector | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 114-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | 尤琳蕙 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | Lin-Hui Yu | en |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 俞明德;陳聖賢 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Min-Teh Yu;Sheng-Syan Chen | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 國際財務報導準則第S2號（IFRS S2）; 實體氣候風險; 股東自由現金流量（FCFE）; 權益評價; 國際會計準則第36號（IAS 36）; 償債備付率（DSCR） | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | IFRS S2; physical climate risk; Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE); equity valuation; IAS 36 impairment; Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) | en |
| dc.relation.page | 100 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202601806 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(限校園內公開) | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2026-07-22 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 碩士在職專班會計與管理決策組 | - |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2031-08-07 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 會計與管理決策組 | |
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