以波特五力分析臺灣羽球選手參加奧林匹克運動會競爭力之研究

Abstract

奧林匹克運動會羽球項目的參賽資格，主要透過世界羽球聯盟資格制度與世界排名積分進行判定。由於奧運名額有限，且受到單一國家名額上限、洲際保障名額、主辦國名額與遞補機制等制度條件影響，選手能否取得資格，已不只是個人能力或單一賽事表現的結果。本研究以2020東京奧運與2024巴黎奧運兩個資格週期為範圍，採用匯合式混合研究設計，並以 Porter 五力分析模型為架構，分析臺灣羽球選手或組合在奧運資格制度下的競爭結構。量化分析以世界羽球聯盟及國際奧林匹克委員會相關官方公開資料為依據，整理參賽情形、世界排名積分、世界排名變化與奧運入選結果；質性分析則透過半結構式訪談，蒐集具奧運資格制度實務經驗者之觀點，並依五力構面進行整合。研究結果顯示，臺灣羽球呈現「局部頂尖、項目不均」的樣態；成對樣本 t 檢定結果顯示，資格週期前後之參賽站數、世界排名積分與世界排名皆達顯著差異，反映臺灣選手或組合在資格週期中整體呈現參賽增加、積分提升與排名前移之趨勢。然而，參賽量本身仍不足以完全解釋最終入選結果，奧運資格競爭同時受到既有競爭者、潛在進入者、世界羽球聯盟與國際奧林匹克委員會規則、國內後勤支援與替代性資格途徑影響。未來臺灣羽球應以「有效參賽」與「資格週期管理」為核心，強化賽事選擇、積分轉換效率、真實資格順位判讀與資源配置。本研究可作為臺灣羽球2028洛杉磯奧運資格週期參賽策略與後勤支援調整之參考。

Olympic qualification in badminton is primarily determined through the qualification system and world ranking points established by the Badminton World Federation (BWF). Due to the limited number of Olympic quotas, national entry limits, continental representation quotas, host country places, and reallocation mechanisms, qualification is no longer determined solely by individual ability or performance in a single tournament. This study focuses on the Tokyo 2020 and Paris 2024 Olympic qualification cycles and adopts a convergent mixed-methods design. Using Porter’s Five Forces model as the analytical framework, this study analyzes the competitive structure faced by Taiwanese badminton players and pairs under the Olympic qualification system. The quantitative analysis was based on official public data from the BWF and Olympic-related sources, including tournament participation, world ranking points, world ranking changes, and Olympic qualification outcomes. The qualitative analysis was conducted through semi-structured interviews with individuals who had practical experience with the Olympic qualification system, and the findings were integrated according to the five-force framework. The results show that Taiwanese badminton demonstrates a pattern of “partial excellence and uneven event development.” Paired-sample t-test results indicate significant differences in tournament participation, world ranking points, and world rankings before and during the qualification cycles, reflecting an overall trend of increased participation, improved point accumulation, and ranking advancement among Taiwanese players and pairs during the qualification cycles. However, tournament participation alone remains insufficient to fully explain final qualification outcomes. Olympic qualification is also influenced by existing competitors, potential entrants, BWF and International Olympic Committee regulations, domestic support systems, and alternative qualification pathways. In the future, Taiwanese badminton should focus on “effective participation” and “qualification-cycle management” by strengthening tournament selection, point conversion efficiency, real qualification-position assessment, and resource allocation. This study may serve as a reference for Taiwan’s participation strategies and support-system adjustments for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic badminton qualification cycle.