降尺度氣候資料到高溫調適行動的斷裂：以臺北市高溫治理為例

Abstract

本研究旨在探討全球氣候變遷衝擊下，臺灣多層次氣候治理體系中，降尺度氣候資料如何在地方實踐過程中，與政策、空間規劃及社區行動產生落差與斷裂。國際上，氣候調適規劃多以 IPCC AR6 提出的「危害—暴露—脆弱度」風險框架及迭代式風險管理作為依據；臺灣中央層級的《氣候變遷因應法》與《國家因應氣候變遷行動綱領》亦強調氣候風險評估與調適能力建構。然而，當此一治理架構降尺度至都市層級時，往往未能充分回應地方空間差異與社會脆弱群體所處之社會關係脈絡，致使氣候調適計畫的執行出現落差。 以臺北市高溫治理為例，現行調適策略多停留於跨局處業務彙整與行動盤點，缺乏以科學氣候資料為基礎的風險辨識與決策支撐。儘管市府推動「降溫城市計畫」等措施，但在欠缺熱風險地圖與脆弱群體空間辨識的情況下，相關政策工具往往成為不具空間針對性的通案規定，難以有效回應高風險地區與社會脆弱群體的需求。另一方面，強調地方知識、互助網絡與在地能動性的「社區為本的調適」，亦與國家層級的風險評估框架存在脫節，反映出調適治理在風險辨識、資源配置與行動落實之間，忽略了空間差異與社會關係耦合的重要性。 本研究以臺北市為核心，採取整合性的研究方法，分析 TCCIP（臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平臺）之氣候重分析模擬資料（TReAD），並結合地理加權迴歸方法，建構高溫風險與社會經濟脆弱度的空間分析基礎；再透過政策文件分析與深度訪談，檢視氣候資料如何支撐地方風險辨識、短期應變行動與長期空間調適規劃。 本研究將臺北市高溫治理視為一個由短期應變與長期規劃共同構成、並須透過監測、評估與滾動修正持續調整的迭代式治理系統。研究旨在診斷國際、國家、地方政府與社區等不同尺度間，風險辨識、資源配置、空間規劃與社區實踐之間的斷裂點，並從空間規劃視角重新思考科學知識、調適治理與社區行動之間的接合方式，以作為臺北市推動更具公平性、空間敏感性與策略性的高溫調適治理之參考。

This study examines how downscaled climate data, within Taiwan’s multi-level climate governance system, becomes disconnected from local policy implementation, spatial planning, and community action under the impacts of global climate change. Internationally, climate adaptation planning is often guided by the IPCC AR6 risk framework of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as iterative risk management. At Taiwan’s national level, the Climate Change Response Act and the National Climate Change Action Guidelines also emphasize climate risk assessment and the building of adaptive capacity. However, when this governance framework is downscaled to the urban level, it often fails to fully address local spatial differences and the social relational contexts in which vulnerable groups are situated. As a result, gaps emerge in the implementation of climate adaptation plans. Taking heat governance in Taipei City as a case study, this research finds that current adaptation strategies largely remain at the level of interdepartmental policy compilation and action inventories, lacking risk identification and decision-making support based on scientific climate data. Although the city government has promoted measures such as the Cooling City Program, in the absence of heat risk maps and spatial identification of vulnerable groups, related policy tools often become generalized regulations without spatial targeting. These tools therefore struggle to effectively respond to the needs of high-risk areas and socially vulnerable groups. Meanwhile, community-based adaptation, which emphasizes local knowledge, mutual support networks, and local agency, also remains disconnected from the national-level risk assessment framework. This reveals that current adaptation governance has insufficiently addressed the coupling of spatial differences and social relations in the processes of risk identification, resource allocation, and action implementation. Focusing on Taipei City, this study adopts an integrated research approach. It analyzes climate reanalysis simulation data from TCCIP (Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform), specifically TReAD, and applies geographically weighted regression (GWR) to construct a spatial analytical basis for examining heat risk and socioeconomic vulnerability. It further uses policy document analysis and in-depth interviews to examine how climate data may support local risk identification, short-term heat response, and long-term spatial adaptation planning. This study conceptualizes Taipei City’s heat governance as an iterative system composed of short-term response actions and long-term adaptive planning, both of which require monitoring, evaluation, and continuous revision. By diagnosing the disconnections among risk identification, resource allocation, spatial planning, and community practice across multiple scales, this study reconsiders how scientific knowledge, adaptation governance, and community action may be better connected, providing a reference for Taipei City to develop more equitable, spatially sensitive, and strategic heat adaptation governance.