第一桶金還是最後一桶金？輔導金申請時點與電影票房之關係研究

Abstract

在國片高度仰賴補助的產業結構下，文化部「國產電影長片輔導金」(下稱長片輔導金)為製作資金的重要來源之一。現行制度允許劇組在製作過程不同階段提出申請，然而過去文獻多探討「是否獲得補助」及「補助金額」對票房的影響，較少討論輔導金申請時機與票房市場表現的關聯。本研究即聚焦於「長片輔導金申請時點」，檢視其與票房表現的關係。 本研究以2017年至2024年臺灣上映之長片輔導金補助之電影為樣本，以票房表現作為被解釋變數，將「輔導金申請時點」(以公告獲選長片輔導金距上映日之天數差做為申請時點早晚的代理指標，並以上映前一年內判斷為符合晚期申請長片輔導金條件)作為核心解釋變數，並控制輔導金補助金額、首週週末上映院數、疫情期間、製作成本、是否有社群媒體揭露預算、國發基金投資等變數。 實證結果發現，長片輔導金申請時點與票房表現皆呈現正相關。即上映前一年內申請長片輔導金之電影，最終票房收入高出上映前超過一年申請者約65%至66%，故建議政府應對於輔導金發放對象加強後續管理，以優化資金配置及促進產業永續發展。

In the industrial structure of Taiwanese cinema, which relies heavily on government support, the Ministry of Culture's "Domestic Feature Film Subsidy Grant " serves as a primary source of production funding. While current regulations allow production teams to apply at various stages, existing literature focuses predominantly on the acquisition and amount of subsidies, leaving the correlation between application timing and market performance largely unexplored. This study addresses this gap by focusing on the "application timing" of the subsidy to examine its relationship with box office performance. The research analyzes a sample of subsidized Taiwanese feature films released between 2017 and 2024. Using box office performance as the dependent variable, the study employs "application timing" as the core explanatory variable—defined by the interval between the subsidy announcement and the release date, with applications within one year of release categorized as "late-stage." Control variables include the subsidy amount, opening weekend theater count, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, production costs, social media budget disclosure, and National Development Fund. Empirical results reveal a significant positive correlation between application timing and box office performance. Films that applied for the subsidy within one year of their release yielded final box office revenues approximately 65% to 66% higher than those that applied earlier. Consequently, this study suggests that the government should enhance follow-up management of subsidy recipients to optimize capital allocation and foster the sustainable development of the film industry.