我國在太平洋邦交國的外交關係類型分析

Abstract

與他國建立及維持邦交關係是台灣展現對外交涉能力之重要指標，而南太平洋區域係我邦交重鎮，亦為美中角力之兵家必爭之地，甚具研究價值。過去文獻分析我與南太平洋邦交關係多以兩岸關係為切入點，惟國內環境乃至個人決策亦扮演重要角色。本文將以國際、國家及個人等分析層次通盤檢視我與太平洋島國之邦交關係，深入探討選舉、政府制度、政治環境等因素，如何影響台灣與該區域國家之建交或斷交。 本文將我與太平洋外交關係路徑進行分類，並透過三個分析層次解釋及歸納。在國際層級結中，本文分析南太平洋地區之國際層級制度，探討美國在太平洋實力投射力度，以及美國保護傘如何鞏固台灣與其盟友之邦誼。本文接續討論否決者理論及選舉時間點等國家層次因素，檢視太平洋島國政治制度對其外交政策轉變所扮演之角色。最後，本文將探討太平洋島國之個人因素如何影響與台灣之建交或斷交。 本文研究發現，國際因素可解釋為何部分太平洋國家仍與我保持外交關係，國內因素則說明諾魯為何係唯一與我建交及斷交兩次之國家，而個人因素則可解釋為何部分國家僅短暫與我建交，隨即斷交。全文最終目的係通盤釐清台灣與太平洋島國之建/斷交之背景及影響主因，以作為未來拓邦及固邦之政策參考。

Establishing and maintaining diplomatic relations with other countries is a crucial indicator of Taiwan’s diplomatic capabilities. The South Pacific region serves as a key stronghold for Taiwan’s diplomatic allies and is also a strategic arena of competition between the United States and China, making it highly valuable for research. Previous studies on Taiwan’s diplomatic relations in the South Pacific have often focused on cross-strait relations as the primary analytical lens. However, domestic factors—including internal political environments and individual decision-making—also play an important role. This paper adopts a comprehensive analytical framework encompassing the international, national, and individual levels to examine Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with Pacific Island countries. It explores how factors such as elections, governmental institutions, and political environments shape decisions to establish or sever diplomatic ties. The thesis categorizes the paths of Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with the Pacific Islands and uses level of analysis to sort out the differences. First, at the international level, this paper applies structural theory to analyze the international order in the South Pacific, focusing on the projection of U.S. power in the region and how the American security umbrella helps reinforce Taiwan’s diplomatic alliances. It then examines national-level factors—including veto player theory and electoral timing—to assess how the political systems of Pacific Island nations influence their foreign policy shifts. Finally, the paper explores how individual-level factors within Pacific Island states impact their decisions to establish or sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This study finds that international factors can explain why some Pacific nations still maintain diplomatic relations with us, while domestic factors explain why Nauru is the only country to have established and severed diplomatic ties with us twice. Personal factors can explain why some countries establish diplomatic relations with us for a brief period before quickly severing them. Ultimately, this study aims to comprehensively clarify the background and primary factors influencing the establishment and severance of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Pacific Island nations, thereby providing policy insights for future efforts to expand and strengthen Taiwan’s diplomatic partnerships.