COVID-19 疫情期間臺灣急診部醫療資源壓力之研究

Abstract

COVID-19 對全球造成重大衝擊。因 Omicron 變異株以輕症與無症狀傳播為主，且防疫政策調整，台灣自 2022 年 4 月下旬起本土確診數快速上升；2022 至 2023 年間共出現 4 波 Omicron 疫情，累計確診超過 1,000 萬例。大規模流行病使急診就醫量上升，進一步造成醫療資源緊繃與醫護負荷加重，並影響患者獲得適切照護。本研究以移動平均與互相關分析台灣各縣市疫情趨勢與急診檢傷人數之時間延遲關係，並以決策樹評估臨床與公衛資源變項（如床數、人口密度、累積確診數）之相對重要性。結果顯示，疫情高峰期間，急診檢傷量與人口密度呈高度正相關；人口密度較低的地區（如花蓮縣）因具備相對充足的急診醫療量能，醫療超載程度較低。本研究期望提供一套以檢傷資料為基礎之評估方法，作為公共衛生緊急事件下匱乏醫療資源之決策參考，協助醫療機構制定較公平且客觀的資源分配原則。

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major global impact. In late April 2022, Taiwan experienced a rapid spread of the Omicron variant. With infections largely mild or moderate and national policy shifting from containment to mitigation, the outbreak placed substantial strain on the healthcare system. Emergency departments faced patient surges, heavier clinician workloads, and constrained medical resources. This study used moving average and cross-correlation analyses to examine lagged relationships between regional COVID-19 incidence trends and ED triage volumes. A decision tree model then evaluated the relative importance of clinical and public health resource factors. The results show a strong positive association between ED triage volume and population density during the peak period. In contrast, lower-density areas such as Hualien County, despite high cumulative case burdens, had comparatively higher bed and physician availability and showed lower levels of healthcare overload. These findings support evidence-based and equitable resource planning for urgent public health emergencies.