第二次安倍政權強化臺日關係之成因：以安倍晉三個人層次分析

Abstract

自1972年日中實現邦交正常化以來，臺日之間並無正式外交關係，加之臺日關係的發展牽動日中與兩岸關係，使臺日關係在相當程度上受到限制。然而，2012年第二次安倍政權成立後，日本的對臺政策呈現明顯積極化，臺日關係被評為自斷交以來達到最高水準。本研究旨在探討此一對臺政策變化如何被解釋。先行研究主要依賴國際層次，例如美中對立與東亞安全環境變化，或國家層次，例如日本國內政治與官僚機構之角色。然而，僅以此二層次難以充分解釋安倍政權對臺政策中的理念性表述與具體政策成果。因此，本研究著重於安倍晉三之信念、動機、決策風格與人際風格，從個人層次分析其對臺政策積極化之原因。 本研究採質性文獻分析法，並納入政治領導人研究之視角。首先，透過與安倍以前之臺灣政策比較，呈現安倍政權對臺政策的特殊性。其次，分析安倍自家庭與社會環境等背景中所形成的個人特性，並進一步探討其在第二次政權以前的外交經驗如何強化其特性。最後，分析上述個人特性如何具體影響第二次安倍政權期間的日本對臺政策。實證部分以《外交青書》中臺灣相關表述之變化、《臺日漁業協議》之締結過程及原因、臺日政府間交流以及領導人於社群媒體上的互動等為代表性案例，分析安倍個人特性如何反映於具體政策成果之中。 本研究的分析顯示，第二次安倍政權對臺政策的積極化，深受安倍個人特性所影響，包括其以保守主義為基礎的理念性信念、對中國軍事崛起的威脅認知與企圖脫離戰後體制的戰略性動機、帶有現實主義與實用主義色彩的決策風格，以及以元首外交與親信任用為特徵的人際風格。透過導入政治領導人研究的視角，本研究補充既有以國家層次與國際層次為中心的分析，提供理解政策形成過程之更具多面性的分析架構。

Since the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and the People’s Republic of China in 1972, Taiwan and Japan have maintained no official diplomatic ties. As developments in Taiwan – Japan relations could affect both Japan–China relations and cross-Strait relations, bilateral relations were long constrained. However, following the inauguration of the second Abe administration in 2012, Japan’s Taiwan policy became markedly more active, with Taiwan – Japan relations widely regarded as reaching their highest level since diplomatic severance. This study examines how this shift in Japan’s Taiwan policy can be explained. Existing scholarship has predominantly relied on international-level factors, such as U.S.–China rivalry and regional security changes, or state-level factors, such as domestic politics and bureaucratic dynamics. Yet these perspectives alone are insufficient to explain the discursive framing and concrete policy outcomes under Abe. Accordingly, this study focuses on Abe Shinzō’s beliefs, motivations, decision-making style, and interpersonal style, analyzing the policy shift from an individual-level perspective. Using qualitative document analysis and a political leadership approach, this study first situates Abe’s Taiwan policy in comparison with previous administrations, then analyzes how his family and social background shaped his personal characteristics, and how his diplomatic experience prior to 2012 reinforced these characteristics. Empirically, the study examines changes in Taiwan-related language in the Diplomatic Bluebook, the negotiation and signing of the 2013 The Taiwan-Japan Fisheries Agreement, intergovernmental exchanges, and leader-level interactions on social media. The analysis shows that the policy shift was strongly influenced by Abe’s conservative ideological beliefs, his perception of China’s military rise as a security threat, his strategic ambition to “cast off the postwar regime,” his realist and pragmatic decision-making style, and his interpersonal style characterized by top-down summit diplomacy and appointing relatives and close ideological allies to key positions. By introducing a leadership-centered perspective, this study complements international- and state-level explanations and offers a more multidimensional framework for understanding Japan’s Taiwan policy-making process.