0403花蓮地震與震後住宿振興政策對旅遊市場之影響

Abstract

本研究探討2024年4月3日花蓮地震及其後政府推動之住宿振興政策，對旅遊市場之影響，並進一步分析災後是否出現跨區域或跨市場之旅遊替代效果。由於花蓮為高度依賴自然景觀之重要觀光目的地，地震衝擊不僅影響當地旅遊需求，亦可能改變旅客之目的地選擇行為，具有高度政策與學術研究價值。本研究以交通部觀光署《觀光旅館營運月報表》為主要資料來源，樣本期間涵蓋2020年至2025年3月，建構雙重差分（difference-in-differences, DID）模型，分析地震發生後花蓮觀光旅館在房租收入、平均房價、總旅客人次、散客人次與團客人次等營運指標上的變化，並進一步區分地震短期、住宿振興政策期間及政策終止後之階段性效果。為檢驗是否存在旅遊替代行為，本研究另以西部縣市觀光旅館作為比較對象，並以事件分段之時間序列迴歸模型，分析地震前後全體出境人次之變化情形。

實證結果顯示，地震發生後，花蓮觀光旅館之房租收入與總旅客人次相較歷史同期出現顯著下降，顯示地震對旅遊市場需求面造成明顯負向衝擊。在納入政策分期後，住宿振興政策期間雖出現部分指標回升跡象，但尚不足以完全抵銷地震所帶來的負面影響。平均房價在政策期間呈現顯著下調，顯示觀光旅館業者可能透過價格調整以因應需求萎縮。替代效果分析結果顯示，西部縣市觀光旅館在地震後短期出現正向替代效果，然而效果並未持續維持。此外，出境人次雖於震後有些微上升趨勢，但並未達統計顯著，顯示地震造成的替代效果主要發生於國內。

整體而言，本研究發現重大天然災害將對地方旅遊市場造成顯著且具經濟意涵之衝擊，而災後住宿振興政策雖對市場具有一定支撐效果，但其成效仍有限。研究結果有助於深化對災害、政策介入與旅遊需求調整之理解，並可作為未來災後旅遊振興政策設計與地方觀光韌性提升之實證參考。

This study examines the impact of the April 3, 2024 Hualien earthquake and the subsequent accommodation subsidy policy on the tourism market, and further investigates whether the disaster led to cross-regional or cross-market tourism substitution effects. As Hualien is a major tourism destination highly dependent on natural attractions, earthquake shocks may not only reduce local tourism demand but also alter tourists’ destination choices, making this issue highly relevant for both policy evaluation and academic research. Using monthly hotel-level data from the Tourism Bureau of Taiwan, this study covers the period from 2020 to March 2025 and employs a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to analyze changes in key operational indicators of tourist hotels in Hualien, including room revenue, average daily room rates, total number of guests, individual travelers, and group travelers. The post-earthquake period is further divided into the immediate post-disaster phase, the accommodation subsidy period, and the post-policy phase to capture the stage-specific effects of both the earthquake and the policy intervention. To examine potential tourism substitution, tourist hotels in western Taiwan are used as a comparison group, while an event-based time-series regression is applied to analyze changes in outbound travel volumes before and after the earthquake.

The empirical results indicate that, following the earthquake, room revenue and total guest numbers of tourist hotels in Hualien declined significantly relative to historical benchmarks, suggesting a substantial negative demand shock to the tourism market. After accounting for policy phases, some indicators show partial recovery during the accommodation subsidy period; however, the overall effects are insufficient to fully offset the negative impact of the earthquake. Average room rates declined significantly during the subsidy period, implying that hotels may have adjusted prices in response to weakened demand. The substitution analysis shows that tourist hotels in western Taiwan experienced a significant short-term positive substitution effect after the earthquake, but this effect was not sustained over time. In contrast, although outbound travel volumes exhibit a slight upward trend after the earthquake, the effect is not statistically significant, suggesting that tourism substitution mainly occurred within the domestic market.

Overall, this study finds that major natural disasters impose significant and economically meaningful impacts on local tourism markets. While post-disaster accommodation subsidy policies provide some degree of market support, their effectiveness remains limited. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the interaction between disasters, policy interventions, and tourism demand adjustments, and offer empirical evidence to inform the design of future post-disaster tourism recovery policies and the enhancement of regional tourism resilience.