越南天下中的關係平衡與權力平衡：具有歷史認知的國際關係案例研究

Abstract

「天下」，是關於東亞地區國際關係研究的重要概念。既有的天下研究，大多從物質實力的權力途徑或文化特殊性的關係途徑展開，研究對象也大多是中原王朝的天下秩序。然而無論權力途徑還是關係途徑的研究，在解釋東亞地區的國際關係時都面臨著諸多挑戰，理論解釋與歷史事實存在落差。越南，就是此一落差的關鍵案例。作為中原王朝的天下秩序的一環，古代越南一方面承認中原王朝的優勢地位並堅持朝貢，另一方面則在中南半島以「天朝」自居，要求占城、哀牢、真臘等國向越南朝貢，試圖建立以越南為中心的天下秩序。 本文以越南為研究對象，延續具有歷史認知的國際關係研究傳統，嘗試提出整合「權力」與「關係」的分析框架以回答越南如何經由權力與關係經營其天下秩序。本文將關係操作化為關係平衡理論的「想像的共性」，包括前置共性與即興共性。本文的權力則沿用了現實主義理論常用的權力要素的分析框架，認為權力是國家資源的總和。按照權力高低與共性多寡，本文將越南的交往對象分為四類，並根據歷史資料檢驗了越南與不同對象的交往差異。 本文發現，前置共性的多寡，是決定共性確認難易的關鍵變數。相較前置共性稀缺的群體，越南更容易與前置共性豐富的群體確認共性並建立關係。一旦共性獲得確認，無論權力大小，越南均優先採用關係平衡的方式管控並處理分歧。但是當共性無法獲得確認時，越南的對外策略則因權力而異，更常對小國採取權力平衡的措施。經由權力與關係，越南構建了上下有序、內外有別的天下秩序。此種天下秩序，至今仍對越南外交產生深遠影響。本文的相關發現不僅有助於增進吾人對古代東亞地區國際關係的理解，還拓展了關係平衡理論的適用範圍。後續研究或可在此基礎之上，將關係平衡的方法論拓展至東亞之外的其他國際關係行為者，構建全球權力與關係的研究議程。

Tianxia (all-under-heaven), is a crucial concept in the study of international relations in East Asia. Existing research on Tianxia has largely proceeded from either the material power approach (權力途徑) or the cultural relational approach (關係途徑), with the object of study being predominantly China's Tianxia order. However, both the power and relational approaches face numerous challenges in explaining the international relations of East Asia, revealing a gap between theoretical explanations and historical facts. Vietnam serves as a critical case of this gap. As a part of China's Tianxia order, ancient Vietnam, on the one hand, acknowledged the superior status of China and persistently paid tribute. On the other hand, it postured as the Celestial Empire (天朝) in mainland Southeast Asia, demanding tribute from Champa, Ai-lao, and Chenla, attempting to establish a Vietnam-centric Tianxia order. This dissertation takes Vietnam as its research subject. Continuing the tradition of History-Informed International Relations research, it proposes an analytical framework that integrates both power and relationship to answer how Vietnam constructed and maintained its own Tianxia order through power and relation. This dissertation operationalizes relationship as the imagined resemblance from Balance of Relationships (BoR) theory, which is categorized into prior resemblance and improvised resemblance. Power follows the analytical framework of power elements common in realist theory, defined as the sum of a state's resources. Based on the two dimensions of power (high/low) and resemblance (rich/scarce), this dissertation divides Vietnam's interaction partners into four types and examines the differences in Vietnam's interactions with each, based on historical data. The study finds that the richness or scarcity of prior resemblance is the key variable determining the difficulty of affirming resemblance. Vietnam found it easier to affirm resemblance and establish relations with groups rich in prior resemblance compared to those where it was scarce. Once resemblance was affirmed, regardless of power disparities, Vietnam prioritized the Balance of Relationships (BoR) to manage and resolve disputes. However, when resemblance could not be affirmed, Vietnam's external strategy varied according to power: it more frequently adopted Balance of Power (BoP) measures towards small states. Through power and relationships, Vietnam constructed the Tianxia order that was hierarchical in status and differentiated between internal and external spheres. This order continues to exert a profound influence on Vietnamese diplomacy today. The findings of this dissertation not only enhance our understanding of international relations in ancient East Asia but also expand the applicability of Balance of Relationships theory. Future research may build upon this foundation to extend the BoR methodology to other international actors beyond East Asia, constructing a global research agenda on power and relationships.