寬限期與房貸成數限制對不動產交易市場的影響

Abstract

本研究旨在探討央行實施選擇性信用管制政策對台灣房市的影響，採用2018至2023年鄉鎮區層級資料，運用差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Differences, DID）進行分析。研究設計中，根據「個人第二戶房貸占該鄉鎮區購置不動產貸款總額之比例」，分別在央行劃定的管制區域與非管制區域中，選取該比率排名前25\\%的鄉鎮區作為實驗組與對照組，評估政策在第二戶貸款密度較高地區的效果。實證結果顯示，政策對房價影響不顯著，但對交易量與市場總值均具有明顯抑制效果，分別下降約27.9%與26.4%；進一步分析亦顯示，取消寬限期的措施效果較強，使交易量與市場總值分別減少約32.2%與29.4%。惟第五波政策效果可能受同期「新青年安心成家貸款」等需求面政策干擾，其實際影響難以明確識別。

This study examines the impact of the central bank’s selective credit control policies on Taiwan’s housing market using township-level data from 2018 to 2023 and a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The empirical design defines treatment and control groups by selecting the top 25% of townships with the highest share of individual second-home mortgages—separately within areas designated as regulated and unregulated by the central bank. This setup allows the analysis to focus on regions with high concentrations of second-home borrowing. The analysis targets the third and fifth waves of credit control, specifically the removal of mortgage grace periods and the reduction of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio cap to 70%. Results show no significant effect on housing prices, but both transaction volume and total market value declined substantially, by approximately 27.9% and 26.4\\%, respectively. Further analysis reveals that the cancellation of grace periods had a particularly pronounced effect, reducing transaction volume and market value by about 32.2% and 29.4%. However, the effect of the fifth wave appears less discernible, potentially due to interference from concurrent demand-side policies—especially the “New Subsidized Mortgage Program for Young First-Time Buyers” (Xin Qing-An), introduced in August 2023, which relaxed loan terms and may have counteracted the intended cooling effects of the credit restrictions.