http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/93 2026-09-24T10:44:41Z 2026-09-24T10:44:41Z Jen-Hui Wu 吳仁慧 http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/4595 2026-07-22T11:33:23Z 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z

標題: 黃金、原油價格與匯率關聯性之研究; The Relationships between Gold Prices, Oil Prices, and Exchange Rates 作者: Jen-Hui Wu; 吳仁慧 摘要: 本研究選擇澳洲、巴西、俄羅斯、南非等四國，歸類為「資源豐富國家」，另將日本、泰國歸類為「資源缺乏國家」，並使用單根檢定、共整合分析、VECM模型與Granger因果關係檢定，探究匯率與黃金價格或原油價格的相關性。 由實證之結果得知，在資源豐富國家組中的幾個國家其匯率與黃金價格或原油價格間確實存在有共整合關係，但前提是必須要將時間序列資料扣除重大國際金融危機干擾的區間；若是使用包含國際金融危機影響期間的長時間序列資料，則共整合關係反而不顯著。然而在Granger因果關係檢定部分，不論是「資源豐富國家」或是「資源缺乏國家」組別中的國家；亦不論是哪一類型的時間序列資料，某些國家的匯率價格與黃金價格或原油價格間具有Granger因果關係，但也有一些國家是呈現無Granger因果關係之相關性。; The study investigates the relationships between the gold prices (or the oil prices) and the exchange rates. Australia, Brazil, Russia, South Africa are defined as the “resources abounded country, “ which export gold mine or crude oil to the world, while Japan, Thailand are defined as the “resources deficient country, ” which with less natural resources such as gold mine or crude oil. Unit root test, cointegration test and Granger casualty test are applied in this study to exam the relationships. The result shows that the worldwide finical crisis such as the September 11 attacks and the subprime mortgage crisis, these incidents would destroy the cointegration relationships between the gold prices (or the oil prices) and the exchange rates. Without these two incidents, that is the time period from April, 2002 to June, 2008, the cointegration relationships are presented in the some countries of the “resources abounded country”. However, the Granger casualty relationships between the variables are founded no matter these two crisis are included or excluded in the time series intervals.

2015-01-01T00:00:00Z Ching-Kuo Ho 何靖國 http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/20858 2026-07-22T12:07:27Z 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z

標題: 麻六甲海峽的現況與發展－以新加坡與馬來西亞的港口貨櫃量做比較; The Past and the Future for Malacca Straits Based on the number of Container Ships in Singapore Port and Malaysia Port 作者: Ching-Kuo Ho; 何靖國 摘要: 在全球貿易發展下，跨國運輸在全世界都隨時隨地發生，其中透過海運運輸因為成本較低而是目前最常使用的方式。麻六甲海峽坐落於東南亞一帶，目前有非常多的船舶航行於此，而麻六甲海峽內的新加坡港為世界上最繁忙的港口之一，新加坡也因港口繁榮使其轉口貿易興盛帶動經濟起飛，但同位於麻六甲海峽的馬來西亞港口貨櫃量卻遠不及新加坡港。 本研究將探討新加坡與馬來西亞的港口貨櫃量走勢，了解新加坡與馬來西亞都位於麻六甲海峽上但其港口貨櫃量有明顯的差異。再透過香港與中國深圳經濟特區的案例，了解馬來西亞目前已重點開發的依斯干達經濟特區、巴生港第三港口與中國出資興建的皇京港能否複製深圳經濟特區的成功。最後並以馬來西亞與新加坡港口的平均成長率去預測未來新加坡與馬來西亞港口貨櫃量與人均貨櫃量，並以香港和深圳經濟特區的案例評估未來馬來西亞能否因為其港口貨櫃量的增長而帶動經濟成長。 本研究結果顯示，未來若2025年馬來西亞港口擴建與興建計畫完成後，馬來西亞的貨櫃裝卸量約占新加坡的95%。而若2025年中國100%轉移其貢獻於新加坡的貨櫃轉運量於馬來西亞下，則馬來西亞的貨櫃裝卸量則約為新加坡的3倍，此時馬來西亞的人均貨櫃量將達新加坡的59%。透過香港與深圳經濟特區的案例發現當深圳的人均貨櫃量從香港的20%成長至香港的77%，深圳的人均收入也從香港的16%成長至香港的59%，人均貨櫃量與人均收入具有一定的正相關。因此，本研究結果預估若馬來西亞未來人均貨櫃量達到本研究所預設對馬來西亞最有利的情境下，即中國轉移100%貢獻於新加坡的轉運量至馬來西亞，則馬來西亞的人均貨櫃量與人均收入都會上升，對馬來西亞的經濟將有正面影響。; Under the development of global trade, transnational transport is very common in the world, which is the most commonly used way through sea shipment because of the low cost. The Malacca Strait is located in the area of Southeast Asia. There are many ships through this strait. Singapore Port is one of the world's busiest ports. Singapore have a good performance for economic due to port prosperity to re-export business driven economic take-off. Malaysian port container is far less than the port of Singapore though it is also located in Malacca Strait. This study explores the trend of port shipments between Singapore and Malaysia to understand the difference in the number of containers between Singapore and Malaysia port. Through the case of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China Special Economic Zone, to understand Malaysia's current focus on the development of the Iskandar Special Economic Zone, Port Klang third port and Melaka Gateway can copy the success of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Finally, the average growth rate of ports in Hong Kong to predict the future of Singapore and Malaysia port container volume and per capita container volume, and Hong Kong and Shenzhen case to assess whether the future of Malaysia due to the growth of port containers to drive its economic growth. The results of this study show that Malaysia's container shipments account for about 95% of Singapore after the completion of the expansion and construction of Malaysia's ports in 2025. If China completely relocated its container shipments to Singapore in 2025, Malaysia's cargo handling capacity was three times that of Singapore, while Malaysia's per capita container volume would reach 59% of Singapore. Through the case of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, when Shenzhen's per capita container volume grew from 20% in Hong Kong to 77% in Hong Kong, Shenzhen's per capita income grew from 16% in Hong Kong to 59% in Hong Kong. Per capita container volume and per capita income partly have positive correlation. As a result, the results of this study suggest that Malaysia's per capita container volume and per capita income will rise if Malaysia's future per capita container volume reaches the most favorable scenario in Malaysia, which will have a positive impact on Malaysia.

2017-01-01T00:00:00Z 鄭盈佳 Ying-Jia Cheng http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/103845 2026-08-19T17:01:09Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

標題: 鶯歌區農會農民退休儲金制度執行成果分析; The Implementation Results of Farmers’ Retirement Savings Program of Yingge District Farmers’ Association 作者: 鄭盈佳; Ying-Jia Cheng 摘要: 本研究以新北市鶯歌區農會為研究個案，採量化統計分析與質性訪談，從人口結構、制度設計及基層農會制度推動三個面向，分析高齡化都市型農會農民退休儲金制度之執行成果，以期反映推動農業政策在基層單位執行差異的重要原因並提出改善建議。本研究蒐集2021年至2025年間農民健康保險及農民退休儲金統計資料，並進行5位農民及2位農會人員訪談。研究結果顯示，研究期間鶯歌區農會農保被保險人由813人下降至615人，65歲以上農保被保險人占比提高至72.85%，符合參與資格之農保人口已不足三成。農民退休儲金參與人數維持於67至69人之間，顯示符合參與資格農保人口雖持續縮減，參與人數仍維持穩定。2025年制度覆蓋率為11.22%，有效參與率為41.32%。質性訪談結果顯示，政府共同提繳為多數受訪農民參與制度之主要誘因，個人生命經驗、生命階段及退休規劃亦會影響參與決策。 本研究主要發現如下。第一，高齡化人口結構已成為影響制度成果的重要背景因素，制度成果應結合制度可參與母體規模加以解讀，而非僅依制度參與人數或單一制度參與率判斷。第二，農民退休儲金屬長期累積型退休制度，生命階段、退休規劃及制度信任共同影響農民參與決策。第三，基層農會為制度推動的重要橋梁，其推動空間仍受地方人口結構、農保資格規定及農業經營條件限制。第四，制度覆蓋率與有效參與率反映不同政策意涵，搭配運用較能完整呈現制度成果。 農退儲金制度除退休保障功能外，也具有鼓勵青年農民建立退休準備及強化從農保障之政策意涵。但是都市型農會所面臨之挑戰，除人口高齡化外，還與青年農業人口補充能力及地方農業發展條件有關。因此，農政機關在評估執行成果時，不應以單一標準檢視，並且為缺乏發展農業空間的基層農會提供更多協助。; This study uses the Yingge District Farmers’ Association in New Taipei City as a case study and employs quantitative statistical analysis and qualitative interviews to examine the implementation results of the Farmers’ Retirement Savings Program in an aging urban farmers’ association. The analysis focuses on three dimensions: demographic structure, institutional design, and program implementation by grassroots farmers’ associations. The study aims to identify key factors contributing to differences in agricultural policy implementation at the grassroots level and to propose recommendations for improvement. Statistical data on Farmers’ Health Insurance and the Farmers’ Retirement Savings Program from 2021 to 2025 were collected, together with interviews with five farmers and two farmers’ association personnel. The results show that the number of Farmers’ Health Insurance participants in the Yingge District Farmers’ Association declined from 813 to 615 during the study period, while the proportion of participants aged 65 and above increased to 72.85%, leaving fewer than 30% of insured farmers eligible to participate in the Farmers’ Retirement Savings Program. Despite the continued decline in the eligible population, the number of program participants remained relatively stable, ranging from 67 to 69. In 2025, the program coverage rate was 11.22%, while the effective participation rate reached 41.32%. The qualitative findings indicate that government matching contributions were a major incentive for participation among most interviewed farmers, while individual life experiences, life stages, and retirement planning also influenced participation decisions. The major findings are as follows. First, population aging has become an important contextual factor affecting program results. Program results should therefore be interpreted in relation to the size of the eligible population rather than assessed solely on the basis of the number of participants or a single participation rate. Second, as the Farmers’ Retirement Savings Program is a long-term accumulation-based retirement system, farmers’ participation decisions are jointly influenced by life stage, retirement planning, and institutional trust. Third, grassroots farmers’ associations serve as an important bridge in program implementation, although their capacity to promote the program remains constrained by local demographic structures, Farmers’ Health Insurance eligibility requirements, and agricultural operating conditions. Fourth, the program coverage rate and the effective participation rate reflect different policy implications, and using both indicators provides a more comprehensive assessment of program results. In addition to providing retirement security, the Farmers’ Retirement Savings Program also serves the policy purposes of encouraging young farmers to begin preparing for retirement and strengthening social protection for those engaged in agriculture. The challenges faced by urban farmers’ associations, however, extend beyond population aging and are also related to their capacity to replenish the younger agricultural population and local conditions for agricultural development. Accordingly, agricultural authorities should avoid applying a single standard when evaluating implementation results and should provide greater support to grassroots farmers’ associations operating in areas with limited opportunities for agricultural development.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Ban-Chen Chuang 莊邦政 http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/19120 2026-07-22T11:46:52Z 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

標題: 鮮切花與保鮮花兩者價格差異之探討; A Study on Price Difference between Fresh Cut Flowers and Preserved Flowers 作者: Ban-Chen Chuang; 莊邦政 摘要: 摘要 本研究以國內H公司提供日本amifa公司，玫瑰保鮮花價格來跟台灣玫瑰鮮切花價格做比較分析，因此得知玫瑰鮮切花經特殊加工後之附加價值與未加工兩者差異為8倍以上之價差。進而延伸來探討蝴蝶蘭鮮切花和保鮮花的價格差異，並依據日本P公司蝴蝶蘭保鮮花價格來與台灣蝴蝶蘭鮮切花價格做比較分析，也得知其兩者價格差異有5~8倍之多。根據聯合國國際貿易中心統計資料，2015年全球鮮切花進口金額已達新台幣2仟3佰億元，相對等同於消費市場需求金額，可想而知保鮮花未來發展極具潛力。綜上所述，本研究發現保鮮花利用特殊加工技術來為花材創造新價值，而透過同中求異的概念，開創花卉產業未來新商機，以知識經濟帶動台灣花卉產業之轉型與升級。 關鍵字：玫瑰、蝴蝶蘭、鮮切花、保鮮花、不凋花、花卉產業; Abstract The purpose of the research was to discover the product differentiation in flower industry. By using price analysis between Taiwan’s fresh cut roses and preserved roses which is quoted to Taiwan’s H company from Japan’s Amifa Inc. The result revealed the pricing of latter can be 8 times greater than former that has made an excess value of flowers. While moving forward to the market of orchids, the study has found 5 to 8 times of extra price difference in Japan’s P company preserved orchids when comparing to Taiwan’s fresh cut orchids. According to ITC (International Trading Center) statistics, the global import net value of fresh cut flowers had reached 230 billion New Taiwan Dollar in 2015, which is believed to represent the demand of consumer market share and the promising potential growth in future. In summary, the study findings may serve as a guide to create additional value after the ordinary cut flowers have proceeded with unique preserved process. By pursuing the business pattern of product differentiation, we expect the development will bring the prosperity to Taiwan’s flower industry, and also lead both transformation and evaluation in modern knowledge- based economy. Key Words: Roses, phalaenopsis, fresh cut flowers, preserved flowers, flower industry

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z