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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 鄭克聲 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jen-Hao Chang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 張仁豪 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-20T20:54:14Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2011-08-08 | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-05-20T20:54:14Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2011-08-08 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2011-08-02 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 1. 盧孟明(2010)，｢極端氣候－臺灣面臨的新挑戰｣，臺大校友雙月刊，第46期，pp.43-46。
2. 盧孟明、陳佳正(2007)，｢臺灣極端降雨氣候事件判定方法｣，大氣科學，35，05-118。 3. 鄭克聲、吳宜珍(2006)，｢序率模擬應用於水文分布檢定信賴區間之建立」，農業工程學報，第52卷第4期，pp.71-79。 4. 劉俊志、吳宜珍、江介倫、鄭克聲(2007)，「線性動差比適合度檢定之檢定力測試」，農業工程學報，第53卷第4期，pp.80-91。 5. Allen, M.R., Ingram, W.J., 2002. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419:224-232. 6. Allen, M.R., Stainforth D.A., 2002. Towards objective probabilistic climate forecasting. Nature, 419:228. 7. Allen, R.P., Soden, B.J., 2008. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science, 321:1481-1484. 8. Emori, S., Brown, S. J., 2005. Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L17706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023272. 9. Frei, C., Schär, C., Lüthi, D., Davies, H., 1998. Heavy precipitation processes in a warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 25:1431–1434. 10. Fujibe, F., Yamazaki, N., Katsuyama, M., Kobayashi, K., 2005. The increasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan based on four-hourly data for a hundred years. cientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 1:41-44. 11. Hegerl, G.C., Zwiers, F.W., Stott, P.A., Kharin, V.V., 2004. Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 17: 3683–3700. 12. Held, I.M., Soden, B.J., 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19:5686-5699. 13. Klein Tank, A.M.G., Konnen, G.P., 2003. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-99. American Meteorological Society. 14. Knutson, T., Tuleya, R., Shen, W., Ginis, I., 2001. Impact of CO2 induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling. J of Climate, 14:2458–2468. 15. Lau, K.M., Wu, H.T., 2007. Detecting trends in tropical rainfall characteristics, 1979-2003. International Journal of Climatology, 27:979-998. 16. Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., 2008. Increase in hourly precipitation extreme beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geoscience, 1:511-514. 17. Liu, S.C., Fu, C., Shiu, C.J., Chen, J.P., Wu, F., 2009. Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L17702, doi:10.1029/2009GL040218. 18. Liou, J.J., Wu, Y.C., Cheng, K.S., 2008. Establishing acceptance regions for L-moments-based goodness-of-fit test by stochastic simulation. Journal of Hydrology, 355(1-4):49-62. 19. Manton, M.J., Della-Marta, P.M., Haylock, M.R., 2000. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific:1961-1998. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.610. 20. Mardia, K.V., 1970. Measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis with applications. Biometrika, 57(3):519–530. 21. O’Gorman, P.A., Schneider, T., 2009. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(35):14773-14777. 22. O’Gorman, P.A., Schneider, T., 2009. Scaling of precipitation extremes over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized GCM. Journal of Climate, Volume:22. 23. Pall, P., Allen, M.R., Stone, D.A., 2007. Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming. Climate Dynamics, 28:351-363. 24. Smith, T.M., Reynolds, R.W., 2005. A global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations(1880-1997). American Meteorology Society. 25. Sun, Y., Solomon, S., Dai, A., Portman, R.W., 2007. How often will it rain? Journal of Climate, Volume:20 26. Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., 1998. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. American Meteorological Society, Vol.79, No.2. 27. Wilby, R.L., Beven, K.J., Reynard, N.S., 2008. Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same? Hydrological Processes, 22, 2511–2523. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/9990 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 近年來，氣候變遷議題已為世界重視並關注。極端降雨事件之頻率增加、強度增強可視為氣候變遷之警訊。本研究探討全球暖化對極端降雨量影響之評估。研究於空間尺度為臺灣全域平均及雨量單站之日雨量，以累積雨量方式決定日雨量門檻值，極端降雨由日雨量門檻值訂定，由此決定出年極端降雨百分率為大於門檻值的累積雨量占年總雨量的比率。本研究蒐集近50年(1961-2010年)臺灣雨量站之雨量，評估全球暖化對臺灣極端降雨量影響。
研究指出溫度與極端降雨百分率變化，具雙變數常態分布關係。因此，條件常態分布下，序率方式評估全球暖化對極端降雨百分率影響。並以機率方式評估全球暖化，極端降雨百分率超過Clausius-Clapeyron增加之1.07倍速率。 結果指出當全球平均溫度升高1K，臺灣全域之極端降雨百分率，其超越機率為0.82。使用雨量站之日雨量亦指出類似之結果，除了臺灣中部與中央山脈西側之雨量站，大部分之雨量站亦有可能超越Clausius-Clapeyron速率。研究評估之結果可提供決策者因應氣候變遷制定調適策略與衝擊評估之依據。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | The effects of global warming on frequency and intensities of extreme storm events have been demonstrated by many catastrophic events in recent years. This study aims to assess the effect of global warming on rainfall extremes in Taiwan using fifty years (1961 – 2010) of daily rainfall data collected at 15 rainfall stations around Taiwan.
Rainfall extremes, or the top 10% bin rainfalls, of islandwide-average and station-specific daily rainfalls were defined by threshold daily rainfalls which were determined by a cumulative rainfall approach. Yearly top 10% rainfall percentages were then calculated based on yearly rainfall extremes. In this study, changes in the top 10% rainfall percentages and changes in the global mean temperatures were found to be characterized by a bivariate normal distribution. Thus, the effect of global warming on changes in the top 10% rainfall percentages can be stochastically assessed based on the conditional normal distribution. It was found that, under one degree increase of global mean temperature, the probability of having a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate of change in the top 10% rainfall percentage for the islandwide-average daily rainfalls equals 0.82. Similar analyses using station-specific daily rainfalls also showed that most stations are likely to experience super Clausius-Clapeyron rate of change in the top 10% rainfall percentages, except those stations located in central Taiwan and west of the Central Mountain Range. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-20T20:54:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-100-R98622022-1.pdf: 1290686 bytes, checksum: ef1524bec2511d6033c205c5131834ff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要.................................................................................................................................Ⅰ
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ 目錄…………………………………………………………………………………….Ⅲ 圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………….Ⅴ 表目錄………………………………………………………………………………….Ⅶ 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………...1 1.1 前言………………………………………………………………………………..1 1.2 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………………………..1 1.3 研究流程……..…… …………………………………..………………………….2 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………...4 2.1 全球暖化………………………………………………………………………….4 2.2 Clausius-Clapeyron方程式………………………………………………………6 2.3 極端降雨………………………………………………………………………….7 2.4 氣候變遷與極端降雨…………………………………………………………….9 第三章 研究區域與研究方法……………………………………………………….12 3.1 研究區域…………………………………………………………………………13 3.2 研究資料…………………………………………………………………………13 3.2.1 臺灣各雨量站………………………..………………………………………….13 3.2.2 臺灣地區全域…………………………………………………………………...14 3.2.3 全球熱帶區域…………………………………………………………………...15 3.2.4 全球平均溫度…………………………………………………………………...16 3.3 研究方法…………………………………………………………………………17 3.3.1 10%雨量區間之訂定…………………………………………………………….18 3.3.2 極端降雨與極端降雨百分率之定義…………………………………………...21 3.3.3評估全球暖化對極端降雨百分率之影響………………………………………22 第四章 分析結果與討論…………………………………………………………….25 4.1 雨量資料…………………………………………………………………………25 4.2 10%雨量區間…………………………………………………………………….31 4.3 極端降雨百分率…………………………………………………………………33 4.4 評估全球暖化1K對極端降雨百分率影響………………….………………….39 第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………….43 5.1 結論……………………………………………………………………………...43 5.2 建議……………………………………………………………………………...45 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………….47 附錄一………………………………………………………………………………….49 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.title | 全球暖化對臺灣極端降雨量影響之評估 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Assessing the Effect of Global Warming on
Rainfall Extremes in Taiwan | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 99-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 盧孟明,林淑華,洪念民 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,極端降雨,Clausius-Clapeyron方程式,雙變數常態分布, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Climate change,Clausius-Clapeyron equation,Rainfall extreme,Bivariate normal distribution, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 50 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2011-08-02 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 生物環境系統工程學系 | |
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|---|---|---|---|
| ntu-100-1.pdf | 1.26 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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