馬英九與蔡英文執政時期台日關係之研究

Abstract

本研究旨在透過國際關係層次分析研究法，針對馬英九(2008至2016年)與蔡英文(2016至2024年)兩位前總統執政時期的台日關係進行比較分析，以探討「國際政治」、「區域情勢」、「雙邊互動」、「國內政治」與「政治領袖」等五大因素，如何影響台灣對日政策及其雙邊關係的發展。 研究方法上，本研究採取文獻分析法、比較案例研究法及深度訪談法，系統性地蒐整及分析兩位總統任內的政策白皮書、官方聲明、外交部及相關部會首長之談話，以及雙方政府間簽訂的協議，日本首相及相關部會之發言與政策白皮書等亦將納入其中，以求周延理解台日關係。此外，本研究也深入訪談相關政策制定者、政黨人士及學者專家，以取得文獻外的內部視角，進行理論與實務的交互驗證。 本論文就 (一)釣魚臺列嶼「聯合號」漁船碰撞事件；(二)沖之鳥「東聖吉16號」漁船扣押事件；(三)日本食品進口管制問題；(四)日本政要「參拜靖國神社」和安倍晉三首相「二戰70週年談話」等四大事件進行研究，盼能觀察到台日雙方在政策決定過程中各因素所具有之影響性。 馬英九前總統政府執政期間採取「親美、友日、和中」策略，雖然面對釣魚臺列嶼與沖之鳥等海域爭議時展現出強硬的立場，但透過推動「東海和平倡議」，最終成功簽訂了「台日漁業協議」，有效穩定了雙邊漁權問題。此外，馬英九前總統政府在2011年日本東日本大震災發生時，迅速展開人道援助，深化了台日友好關係，但面對福島核災後的食品進口管制議題，卻受限於國內輿論而無法推動進一步開放措施。 相較之下，蔡英文前總統政府則以強化民主價值與經濟合作為基礎，積極推動「踏實外交」，成功與日本建立制度化的海洋合作對話機制，並在日本食品進口管制議題上，逐步解除管制，提高台灣後續加入國際經貿合作機制的可能性。此外，在安全合作方面，蔡英文前總統任內積極推動與日本在非傳統安全領域的合作，透過建立「台日海洋事務對話」等雙邊溝通平台，促進在海上安全、漁業秩序等議題上的政策協調與資訊交流，非正式的政黨外交方面，則與日本自民黨建立「台日執政黨2+2對話」機制有效緩和並共同應對區域海域的緊張情勢。 透過研究可知，「國際政治」、「區域情勢」、「雙邊互動」、「國內政治」與「政治領袖」對台日政策與雙邊關係影響甚鉅，並存在動態性的互動與調整。特別是在面臨中國崛起與美中競爭激烈化的背景下，馬英九、蔡英文二位前總統展現出不同策略方向，具體反映在雙邊互動模式與政策制定上。 台日關係之穩定與發展，需建立在雙方對彼此國內外政治情勢的深刻理解上，並積極透過制度化以及各式管道進行溝通與互動。未來台日雙邊政策走向，仍須持續關注區域情勢及國際政治變化，尤其在美中競爭深化下，台日雙方如何維繫並深化共同利益，將成為重要課題。

This study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of Taiwan-Japan relations during the administrations of former Presidents Ma Ying-jeou (2008–2016) and Tsai Ing-wen (2016–2024) through the lens of the levels-of-analysis approach in international relations. It focuses on how five key factors—international politics, regional dynamics, bilateral interactions, domestic politics, and political leadership—have shaped Taiwan's Japanese policy and the development of bilateral relations between Taiwan and Japan. In terms of research methods, this study adopts literature analysis, comparative case study, and in-depth interviews to systematically collect and examine policy white papers, official statements, and speeches by heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other relevant agencies during both administrations, as well as bilateral agreements signed between the two governments. Japanese prime ministerial speeches, statements by related ministries, and Japan’s policy documents are also incorporated to provide a comprehensive understanding of Taiwan-Japan relations. Additionally, in-depth interviews with policymakers, political party figures, and scholars are conducted to gain internal perspectives beyond the literature and to cross-validate theoretical and practical findings. This thesis focuses on four major events: (1) The Diaoyutai Islands “Lien Ho” fishing vessel collision incident; (2) The Okinotori “Dong Sheng Ji No.16” fishing vessel detention incident; (3) The issue of Japan's food import restrictions; (4) Japanese politicians' visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s speech on the 70th anniversary of WWII. These cases are analyzed to observe how various factors influence policy decisions and bilateral interactions. During Ma Ying-jeou's administration, the government adopted a strategy of "Pro-U.S., Friendly to Japan, and Peaceful with China." While maintaining a firm stance on maritime disputes, such as the Diaoyutai Islands and Okinotori, the Ma administration promoted the East China Sea Peace Initiative, which eventually led to the successful signing of the Taiwan-Japan Fisheries Agreement, effectively stabilizing bilateral fisheries issues. Furthermore, Taiwan's swift humanitarian aid following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake significantly deepened the Taiwan-Japan friendship. However, domestic public opinion constrained the government's ability to ease food import restrictions following the Fukushima nuclear disaster. In contrast, under Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan emphasized strengthening democratic values and economic cooperation, actively promoting “Steadfast Diplomacy.” Her administration established an institutionalized maritime cooperation dialogue mechanism with Japan and gradually lifted food import restrictions, enhancing Taiwan's prospects for participating in international economic partnerships. Regarding security cooperation, Tsai advanced Taiwan-Japan collaboration in non-traditional security fields by creating platforms such as the Taiwan-Japan Maritime Affairs Dialogue, facilitating policy coordination and information exchange on maritime security and fisheries order. In terms of informal party diplomacy, Tsai’s government fostered the “Taiwan-Japan Ruling Parties 2+2 Dialogue”, effectively easing regional maritime tensions and promoting joint responses. The study reveals that international politics, regional dynamics, bilateral interactions, domestic politics, and political leadership all exert significant and dynamic influence on Taiwan-Japan policy and relations. Particularly under the rise of China and the intensification of U.S.-China competition, former Presidents Ma and Tsai adopted differing strategic approaches, as reflected in their patterns of bilateral engagement and policymaking. The stability and advancement of Taiwan-Japan relations rely on a deep understanding of each other's domestic and international political environment and require continuous communication through institutionalized and diverse channels. Moving forward, close attention must be paid to regional developments and shifts in international politics. In the context of the deepening U.S.-China rivalry, maintaining and enhancing shared interests between Taiwan and Japan will remain a critical challenge.