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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 劉力瑜 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Li-yu Daisy Liu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Nan San Nyunt | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Nan San Nyunt | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-17T16:42:02Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2025-09-18 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2025-09-17 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2025 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2025-07-08 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | (MIID), M. I. f. I. D. (2017). Addressing the Challenges of Upland Farming in Southern Shan State for Climate Resilience: Agroecology case study. MIID. https://www.mmiid.org/
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Environmental Research Letters, 17(10). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9242 Zulfiqar Ali1, Hamed3, M. M., Muhammad1, M. K. I., & Shamsuddin Shahid1. (2024). A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan. International Journal of Climatology, 44(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8346 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/99793 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | Climate change has negative impacts on crop production, hence it is essential to understand the potential impacts of it and the efficacy of adaptation strategies on future potato yields. This study was conducted to simulate the impacts of climate change on future potato yields, design adaptation strategies, and evaluate their effects on tuber yields. Utilizing daily weather data generated by LARS.WG in combination with the SUBSTOR-Potato crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software, we simulated projected potato yields for the rainfed monsoon cropping season under three distinct climate change scenarios (ssps 126, 245, and 585) for the years 2025 to 2087 in Naungtayar Township, Southern Shan State, Myanmar. Climate analysis indicated that the high-emission scenario is associated with more extreme climate conditions, characterized by elevated temperatures and increased variability in precipitation. The results showed that the SUBSTOR-Potato model exhibited robust performance throughout the calibration and validation phases. The simulated results indicated that among the various emission scenarios, the lowest potato yield was anticipated under the ssp585 scenario, followed by ssp245 and ssp126, with yield discrepancies between ssp126 and ssp585 approximating 8 to 9 t/ha, which indicates a reduction of about 25%. Further analysis of adaptation strategies revealed that delayed planting dates could enhance potato yield, whereas yields declined when planting occurred earlier than optimal. Notably, extending the crop life cycle by adjusting the harvest timing allowed early-planted potatoes to achieve yields comparable to the normal planting date. Moreover, our findings indicated that increasing fertilizer application may not serve as an effective strategy for yield improvement under climate change in this region. The selection of appropriate cultivars is vital, given that heat-resistant cultivars did not yield favorable results under the lower emission scenarios. It is essential to note that these findings were derived from a single growing season during the calibration period; thus, they should be interpreted with caution. | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | Climate change has negative impacts on crop production, hence it is essential to understand the potential impacts of it and the efficacy of adaptation strategies on future potato yields. This study was conducted to simulate the impacts of climate change on future potato yields, design adaptation strategies, and evaluate their effects on tuber yields. Utilizing daily weather data generated by LARS.WG in combination with the SUBSTOR-Potato crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software, we simulated projected potato yields for the rainfed monsoon cropping season under three distinct climate change scenarios (ssps 126, 245, and 585) for the years 2025 to 2087 in Naungtayar Township, Southern Shan State, Myanmar. Climate analysis indicated that the high-emission scenario is associated with more extreme climate conditions, characterized by elevated temperatures and increased variability in precipitation. The results showed that the SUBSTOR-Potato model exhibited robust performance throughout the calibration and validation phases. The simulated results indicated that among the various emission scenarios, the lowest potato yield was anticipated under the ssp585 scenario, followed by ssp245 and ssp126, with yield discrepancies between ssp126 and ssp585 approximating 8 to 9 t/ha, which indicates a reduction of about 25%. Further analysis of adaptation strategies revealed that delayed planting dates could enhance potato yield, whereas yields declined when planting occurred earlier than optimal. Notably, extending the crop life cycle by adjusting the harvest timing allowed early-planted potatoes to achieve yields comparable to the normal planting date. Moreover, our findings indicated that increasing fertilizer application may not serve as an effective strategy for yield improvement under climate change in this region. The selection of appropriate cultivars is vital, given that heat-resistant cultivars did not yield favorable results under the lower emission scenarios. It is essential to note that these findings were derived from a single growing season during the calibration period; thus, they should be interpreted with caution. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2025-09-17T16:42:02Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2025-09-17T16:42:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I
Abstract II Table of Contents IV List of Figures VII List of Tables X List of Abbreviations XI Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Overview of Potato Production in Myanmar 1 1.2 Overview of Climate Change and Its Impact on Myanmar's Agricultural Sector 2 1.3 Research Problem and Significance 4 1.4 Research Objectives and Questions 6 1.5 Thesis Structure 7 Chapter 2: Literature Review 8 2.1 Potato Production and Its Role in Global Food Security 8 2.1.1 Potato Production in Myanmar 8 2.2 Climate Change and Agriculture 14 2.2.1 Climate variables affect potato growth and development 15 2.3 Modeling Approaches for Climate Change Impact Assessment 16 2.4 Adaptation Strategies for Climate Resilience 17 Chapter 3: Materials and Methods 19 3.1 Study Area 19 3.1.1 Geographic and Climatic Characteristics 19 3.2 Data Collection 20 3.2.1 Climate Data Sources and Processing 21 3.2.3 Crop Management Data 23 3.3 Climate Scenarios 23 3.4 DSSAT Model Setup 24 3.4.1 Model Calibration and Validation 24 3.4.2 SUBSTOR-Potato Module Parameters 26 3.5 Simulation of Potato Yield for Climate Change 27 3.6 Data Analysis 28 Chapter 4: Results 29 4.1 Model Calibration and Validation Results 29 4.2 Climate Projections for Southern Shan State 30 4.2.1 Solar Radiation, Temperature, and Precipitation Changes 31 4.3 Comparison with baseline climate 33 4.4. Potato Yield Projections under Future Scenarios 35 4.4.1 Growth and Development of Potatoes under Future Climate Scenarios 39 4.5 Adaptation strategies 48 4.5.1 Shifting planting dates 48 4.5.2 Enhancing Fertilizer Application 50 4.5.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Strategies 51 4.5.4 Development of heat-resistant cultivar 53 Chapter 5: Discussion 55 5.1 Model Calibration and Validation 55 5.2 Climate Projection for Southern Shan State 55 5.3 Analysis of Climate Impacts on Potato Yield 57 5.4 Impact of Adaptation Strategies on Future Potato Yield 58 5.5 Practical and Policy Implications for Potato Production in Southern Shan State 61 5.6 Limitations and Sources of Uncertainty 62 Chapter 6: Conclusions 64 References 66 | - |
| dc.language.iso | en | - |
| dc.subject | 馬鈴薯 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | DSSAT | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | SUBSTOR-馬鈴薯 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 氣候變遷 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 調適策略 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Adaptation Strategies | en |
| dc.subject | DSSAT | en |
| dc.subject | SUBSTOR-Potato | en |
| dc.subject | Climate Change | en |
| dc.subject | Potato | en |
| dc.title | 氣候變遷對馬鈴薯生產之風險評估與策略分析：以DSSAT模擬在緬甸之應用為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Climate Change Risk Assessment and Strategies Analysis on Potato Production: A Case Study in Myanmar Using DSSAT | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 113-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 楊雯如;陳世芳;林桓億 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Wen-Ju Yang;Shih-Fang Chen;Hen-I Lin | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 馬鈴薯,DSSAT,SUBSTOR-馬鈴薯,氣候變遷,調適策略, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Potato,DSSAT,SUBSTOR-Potato,Climate Change,Adaptation Strategies, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 77 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202501414 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(限校園內公開) | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2025-07-10 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 共同教育中心 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 全球農業科技與基因體科學碩士學位學程 | - |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2029-12-30 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 全球農業科技與基因體科學碩士學位學程 | |
文件中的檔案：
| 檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ntu-113-2.pdf 未授權公開取用 | 9.73 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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