運用核心密度估計分析 COVID-19 對辛辛那提市緊急醫療系統之時空影響

Abstract

COVID-19 作為現代史上最具全球性衝擊的公共衛生事件之一，引發了緊急醫療服務（Emergency Medical Services, EMS）需求型態與服務配置的重大變化。因此，本研究旨在探討 COVID-19 大流行對美國辛辛那提市 EMS 系統所造成的影響。特別地，本研究導入一種新穎的核密度估計技術，以偵測跨越既定行政邊界的潛在空間模式，提供對事件分佈與空間交互作用更自然的觀察視角。 本研究聚焦於七大類 EMS 案件類型：心臟疾病（Cardiac）、中風（Stroke）、藥物過量（Overdose）、自殺（Suicide）、家庭暴力（Domestic Violence）、火災（Fire）與交通事故（Traffic Accidents）。研究結果指出三大主要發現：首先，在 2020 年 COVID-19 封鎖期間，EMS 案件總量顯著下降，反映出封控政策與民眾對公共風險的感知對緊急服務需求的抑制效應；其次，部分案件類型如心臟病與中風，出現空間上異常聚集或熱區擴張，顯示特定醫療需求的重新分佈與強化；第三，與心理社會因素相關的案件（如藥物過量、家庭暴力與自殺）呈現不同程度的波動，反映疫情對心理健康與家庭結構的深層影響。 綜上所述，本研究不僅揭示 COVID-19 對 EMS 需求與空間組織的深層結構性影響，亦為未來面對公共衛生危機時之緊急應變規劃、資源配置與都市韌性設計提供了實證支持與決策參考。

As one of the most globally disruptive public health events in modern history, COVID-19 led to significant changes of EMS demand patterns and service configurations. Accordingly, this study was launched to investigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system in Cincinnati, United States. In particular, a novel kernel density estimator was incorporated to detect latent patterns that transcend predefined administrative boundaries and thereby provide a more natural view of spatial interactions and distributional anomalies. This study has focused on seven primary EMS case types: Cardiac, Stroke, Overdose, Suicide, Domestic Violence, Fire, and Traffic Accidents. There are three major findings. Firstly, the total EMS call volume decreased significantly during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020, reflecting the suppressive effect of containment policies and perceived public health risks on emergency service demand. Secondly, certain case types, such as cardiac and stroke, exhibited abnormal clustering or hotspot expansion in spatial patterns, suggesting a redistribution or intensification of specific healthcare needs. Thirdly, psychosocial-related incidents such as overdose, domestic violence and suicide showed varying degrees of fluctuation, which reflects the pandemic’s psychological and familial impacts. In aummary, this study not only illustrates the deep structural influences of COVID-19 on EMS demand and spatial organization but also provides empirical support for developing emergency response planning, resource allocation, and urban resilience strategies in preparation for future public health crises.