臺日民眾在中美競爭下的好感度變化：2014至2023年亞洲民主動態調查分析

Abstract

中國大陸與美國兩大強權之間的競爭，是21世紀國際關係的重要趨勢，競逐焦點除傳統的經濟與軍事領域外，亦涵蓋對外宣傳與公眾外交等軟實力操作。既有研究指出，評估軟實力的有效性，可透過受眾對相關國家的好感度作為間接指標。臺灣與日本民眾對中國大陸與美國的好感度，長期呈現「親美遠中」的趨勢，儘管兩地在歷史、文化與經濟脈絡上存在差異，卻表現出相近的輿論方向，顯示值得進一步比較其成因與影響因素。本研究以亞洲民主動態調查（Asian Barometer Survey）第四至第六波（2014至2023年）資料為基礎，採用順序邏輯迴歸模型（Ordinal Logistic Regression），針對臺灣與日本民眾對中美的好感度進行比較分析。結果顯示，重視民主價值的程度與對美國的好感度呈顯著正相關，特別在中美關係惡化的背景下更為明顯。相對地，對中國大陸的好感度則在政治緊張升高時下降，尤其第五波至第六波時，臺灣對其好感度快速崩跌。進一步分析亦指出，在臺灣，民主距離逐漸成為影響對中觀感的重要因素；川普首次執政期間，臺日對美國的好感度均出現滑落；此外，臺日民眾的政黨偏好亦表現出對中美的態度具有穩定的解釋力。儘管因採取數據實證方式無法深入探討個案心理作質化分析，研究結果仍對未來區域外交與安全政策制定具有參考價值。

This thesis examines public perceptions of the global power dynamic between China and the United States in Taiwan and Japan. It is focusing on the role of democratic values and political orientation in shaping international favorability. Although Taiwan and Japan differ in historical and economic contexts, both show consistent trends of stronger favorability toward the U.S. than China. Using data from the Asian Barometer Survey (from Waves 4 to 6, between 2014 to 2023) and ordinal logistic regression models, this research compares factors influencing public sentiment across the two regions. The results show that support for democratic values significantly increases favorability toward the U.S., especially amid rising U.S.–China tensions. In contrast, favorability toward China declines during periods of political confrontation. In Taiwan, democratic distance has become a growing factor in shaping views of China, while political party affiliation consistently affects attitudes toward both powers in Taiwan and Japan. Although limited to quantitative analysis, this study contributes to understanding how democratic values and domestic politics influence foreign opinion. Its findings offer insights into evolving public diplomatic dynamics and implications for regional foreign policy in East Asia.