高鐵聯外支線對車站周邊仕紳化影響之研究

Abstract

本研究以臺鐵新竹六家線與臺南沙崙線為案例，結合量化模擬系統性分析鐵道支線延伸對新竹、臺南地區房地產價格與社區仕紳化現象的時空動態變化與影響。研究蒐集兩地區房屋交易資料，並整合村里層級社會經濟指標，從房價、教育程度、所得、人口結構等多面向進行實證檢驗。研究結果顯示鐵道支線延伸顯著提升車站周邊房價，並帶動高學歷、高所得人口進駐，產生明顯的仕紳化現象。新竹地區房價與仕紳化幅度高於臺南，且高鐵站、科學園區等設施周邊效果最為顯著。地理加權迴歸分析結果顯示，仕紳化與房價提升效應具高度空間異質性，且隨時間推進，正向影響逐漸由核心區外溢至鐵路沿線與外圍新興社區。臺南則以新興中產成長區為主，核心區老化與弱勢現象仍然存在。此外，隱藏式馬可夫模型結果證實顯示，大多數社區社會輪廓狀態高度穩定，僅少數邊緣化社區有機會因交通建設、人口遷入轉型為新興成長型聚落。臺南地區社區流動性較新竹為低，階層分化現象更為持久。本研究成果除補足臺灣鐵道支線與仕紳化議題的實證缺口，並顯示鐵道建設效益會隨空間結構與發展階段產生不同差異。因而政策規劃應因地制宜，兼顧區域均衡、環境品質與社會公平，以促進都市永續發展。

This study aims to explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of real estate prices and community gentrification in an extension line of Taiwan Railway from high speed rail stations in Hsinchu Liujia and Tainan Shalun, respectively. A comprehensive methodological framework is adopted, combining Difference-in-Differences (DiD), Spatial Error Model (SEM), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to systematically analyze the impacts of branch railway lines. Real estate transaction data from both regions are collected and integrated with village-level socioeconomic indicators. The empirical analysis examines multiple dimensions, including housing prices, education levels, income, and demographic structures. The results reveal that the extension of railway branch lines significantly increases housing prices near stations and attracts a higher proportion of highly educated and high-income residents, leading to pronounced gentrification effects. The extent of price increases and gentrification is comparatively higher in Hsinchu than in Tainan, with the most substantial impacts observed around the high-speed rail station and science parks. GWR analysis further highlights strong spatial heterogeneity in both gentrification and housing price effects. Over time, these positive effects gradually spill over from urban cores to areas along the railway and emerging suburban communities. In contrast, Tainan is characterized by emerging middle-class growth zones, while aging and social vulnerability remain in the urban central area. HMM results confirm that most community types are highly stable over time, with only a few marginalized communities showing potential for transformation into emerging growth clusters through transportation development and population in-migration. Compared to Hsinchu, community mobility in Tainan is lower, with more persistent social stratification. Results of this study fill a critical empirical gap in the research on railway branch lines and gentrification in Taiwan. It is also implicitly shown that impacts of railway development vary by spatial structure and stage of regional development. Policy planning should therefore be context-sensitive, balancing regional equity, environmental quality, and social fairness to promote sustainable urban development.