電子代工業者進入無人機產業之策略評估與風險分析

Abstract

在地緣政治風險升高、全球供應鏈重組與政策驅動創新的趨勢下，無人機產業成為戰略敏感性產業之一，亦為台灣電子代工業者尋求轉型升級與技術加值的重要契機。然而，該產業涉及軍民雙用、法規敏感與國際信任門檻，傳統策略分析工具（如SWOT、BCG矩陣與Porter五力分析）在此類環境下常面臨評估侷限，難以提供具操作性之進入可行性與風險補強建議。 本研究提出一套六大構面、30項子指標的多維評估評估模型，參考多構面分析概念與三大新興構面，並導入「風險程度 × 策略重要性 × 可控性」之補強排序邏輯，協助企業判斷是否具備切入高敏感性產業之條件。 以W公司切入無人機產業為實例，實施模型評估結果顯示，其總加權得分落於「可進入區」，代表企業已具備基礎潛力，但在「技術合規」與「專利佈局」構面之風險程度較高，為進入門檻之關鍵不足。本研究並據此提出短中長期策略建議，具體涵蓋合規制度建構、自研模組平台推進與ESG信任深化。 本研究模型除具備量化、結構性與視覺化等優點外，亦可延伸應用於低軌通訊、軍民AI、戰略製造等領域，為政策導向產業的風險評估、企業轉型與標案競標提供實務依據，亦具備學術研究上之原創性與推廣潛力。

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, supply chain restructuring, and policy-driven innovation, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry has emerged as a strategic and sensitive sector. For Taiwanese electronics manufacturing service (EMS) providers, it represents an opportunity for transformation and value-added technological development. However, traditional strategic frameworks—such as SWOT, BCG Matrix, and Porter’s Five Forces—are often inadequate in evaluating high-risk and compliance-intensive industries, as they lack quantifiable metrics and risk prioritization logic. This study proposes a Multi-Dimensional Strategy and Risk Evaluation Model (MDSREM), consisting of six dimensions and 30 measurable indicators. The model based on the concept of multi-dimensional analysis and incorporates emerging considerations such as geopolitical risk, regulatory compliance (e.g., ITAR/EAR), and ESG-based trust barriers. It introduces a tri-criteria prioritization mechanism—Risk Exposure × Strategic Importance × Controllability—to assist enterprises in evaluating their readiness and formulating actionable improvement strategies. Applying the model to a real-world case, this study evaluates W Company’s potential entry into the UAV sector. The company achieved a weighted score that places it within the “Entry Possible” category. While W Company exhibits notable strengths in market positioning and ESG performance, it still faces substantial challenges in critical areas such as regulatory compliance and patent deployment. Based on the assessment results, this study offers short-, medium-, and long-term strategic recommendations, including the establishment of ITAR compliance frameworks, the development of proprietary platform technologies, and the enhancement of international credibility through strengthened ESG practices. The proposed model is not only quantifiable and structurally comprehensive but also adaptable to other sensitive sectors such as low-earth orbit communications, defense-grade AI, and advanced manufacturing. It offers practical value for policy-aligned industrial planning, enterprise transformation, and procurement readiness, while contributing original insights to academic discourse on strategic risk evaluation.