臺灣地方政府社會支出差異之決定因素

Abstract

本研究探究臺灣地方政府社會支出之決定因子為何？過去研究多從臺灣民主化的視角切入此問題，強調選舉及政黨競爭影響社會支出。近期文獻則指出，後工業化進程導致人口結構及社會需求的改變，進而影響政府支出。然而，現有研究對於民主化與後工業化兩種理論視角的綜合實證十分有限。本研究聚焦於影響地方政府社會支出的決定因子，使用2002年至2022年臺灣縣市政府社會支出為依變項，透過縱橫資料迴歸模型，分析影響臺灣地方政府社會支出的主要因素。 在本研究的兩個統計模型中，「民主化模型」的結果顯示，社會抗爭、利益團體數量、工會參與率與地方政府社會支出呈現正相關，反映出民主化促進公民參與成為推動縣市福利政策的重要力量。相對而言，縣市首長的黨籍、選舉競爭激烈程度及選舉年，則與地方政府社會支出無顯著關係。「後工業化模型」的結果顯示，女性擔任縣市首長、65歲以上人口比例與社會支出呈現正相關，生育率、貧窮率與社會支出呈現負相關，女性勞動參與率、失業率對社會支出則無顯著相關性。該結果顯示女性政治參與、高齡少子女化是推動地方社會支出成長的重要因子，更反映出地方政府積極回應政治危機，而未積極回應職業婦女、失業及貧窮人口的需求。 本研究結果深化了對小型新興民主國家在地方社會支出政策運作模式的理解。相較於西方國家受主要由政黨與工會主導福利政策，以臺灣為例的小型新興民主國家亦受到公民參與影響，如社會抗爭及利益團體影響政府決策。在後工業化趨勢下，臺灣與西方國家的社會支出擴張現象皆受到人口高齡化及女性政治領袖的驅動。值得注意的是，女性勞動參與率、失業率、貧窮率與社會支出的結果，突顯出臺灣整體社會福利發展仍著重於保障性社會政策，而非朝向更廣泛的社會投資策略。本研究突顯小型民主國家的後工業化模式有別於其他國家，民主化與後工業化兩股力量在臺灣的共同作用，形塑出獨特的地方政府社會政策模式。

Previous research on determinants of government social spending has primarily focused on democratization, emphasizing elections and party competition, while recent literature highlights post-industrialization’s impact on social spending. However, few studies integrate both perspectives to rigorously investigate underlying factors behind local social spending. This study examines the determinants of social expenditure in Taiwanese local government from 2002 to 2022. We collected social expenditure information and various democratization and post-industrialization characteristics at the county/city levels across two decades and analyze the data using panel data regression. The Democratization factors show that social protests, interest groups and union density positively correlate with local government’s social expenditure, indicating that democratization enhances civic participation, driving increase welfare expenditure. However, mayoral political affiliation, electoral competition and electoral year show no significant effect on social spending. The Post-Industrialization factors indicate that the presence of female mayors and a higher proportion of residents aged 65+ are positively correlated with local social spending. Fertility rates and poverty rates are negatively correlated with social spending. Female labor force participation and unemployment rates do not significantly impact social expenditure. These findings suggest that female political leadership and aging society are key drivers of increased social expenditure at local level. Furthermore, these results also reflect that local governments prioritize responding to political crises while insufficiently addressing the demand of female employees, low-income households, and unemployed populations. This study offers insights into local social spending dynamics in a small emerging democracy. Unlike Western democracies, where political parties and unions shape welfare policies, smaller democracies rely more on civic engagement to influence government decisions. Under post-industrialization trends, both Taiwan and Western countries have increased social spending, primarily driven by aging society and female political leadership. Notably, the results regarding female labor participation rate, unemployment rate poverty and rate suggest that the country’s welfare development remains focused on protective social policies rather than broader social investment. These findings distinguish the post-industrialization model in small democracies from that of other countries and underscore the unique interactions between democratization and post-industrialization in shaping Taiwan’s social policy landscape.