ESG搜尋熱度與農業用塑膠籃原料需求之關聯性-以H公司為例

Abstract

永續發展與 ESG 意識日益提高，塑膠減量已成全球趨勢，然而目前缺乏實證研究探討 ESG 關注度與塑膠原料實際需求之關係。本研究以臺灣 H 公司農業塑膠籃原料市場為例，使用 2023至2024 年之月銷售資料結合 Google Trends的 ESG 搜尋熱度，控制產品價格與國際油價，採用最小平方法迴歸模型檢視 ESG 搜尋熱度對塑膠原料需求的影響。 研究結果顯示 ESG 搜尋熱度上升會顯著抑制塑膠原料需求，對原生塑膠原料(新料)的影響尤為明顯，結果顯示ESG 搜尋熱度每提高一單位，再生塑膠原料(加工料)月需求平均減少約 40 公斤。相較之下，再生塑膠原料需求未因 ESG 熱度提高而顯著下降，甚至呈現微幅上升，顯示永續關注主要影響對原生塑膠的使用減少。 分析顯示 ESG 搜尋熱度具有成為需求先行指標的潛力。搜尋趨勢變化通常領先傳統銷售數據，因此當 ESG 關注度攀升時，隨後數月塑膠原料需求走勢可能轉向，例如原生塑膠原料減少而再生塑膠原料增加，提供市場變化的前瞻預警。即使控制價格與油價等因素，ESG 熱度的影響依然顯著，顯示此效果獨立於經濟變數。 本研究創新應用 Google 搜尋趨勢於農業塑膠資材需求預測，證明網路搜尋指數可成為有效預測工具，為傳統農經分析引入即時性的大數據視角。研究發現對產業與政策具有重要啟示。對業者而言，塑膠原料供應商應監測 ESG 相關搜尋趨勢以預判需求變化，並積極布局再生料供應以因應永續趨勢下原生塑膠需求下滑。政策方面，政府可加強 ESG 永續理念宣導並支持再生塑膠原料應用，例如補貼與回收機制等導入，以加速農業資材領域的減塑轉型；同時運用搜尋趨勢數據作為政策參考工具，適時掌握市場動態，助力永續發展目標之實現。

Sustainable development and ESG awareness are increasing, and plastic reduction has become a global trend, however, there is a lack of empirical research to investigate the relationship between ESG concerns and actual demand for plastic raw materials. In this study, we take the agricultural plastic basket raw material market of Taiwan Company H as an example. Using the monthly sales data from 2023 to 2024, combined with the ESG search heat of Google Trends, and controlling for the product price and the international oil price, we use a least-square regression model to examine the impact of the ESG search heat on the demand for plastic raw materials. The study results show that an increase in ESG search heat will significantly dampen the demand for plastic raw materials, and the impact on virgin plastic raw materials (new materials) is particularly pronounced. The results show that for every unit increase in ESG search heat, the monthly demand for recycled plastic raw materials (processed materials) will be reduced by an average of about 40 kilograms. In contrast, demand for recycled plastic raw materials did not fall significantly as a result of the ESG heat, and even rose slightly, suggesting that sustainability concerns are primarily affecting the reduction in the use of virgin plastics. The analysis suggests that ESG search activity has the potential to become a leading indicator of demand. Changes in search trends typically outpace traditional sales data, so when ESG interest rises, demand for plastic raw materials may shift in subsequent months, such as a decrease in virgin plastics and an increase in recycled plastics, providing a forward-looking warning of changes in the market. Even when controlling for factors such as prices and oil prices, the effect of ESG sentiment remains significant, suggesting that this effect is independent of economic variables. This study's innovative use of Google search trends for agricultural plastics demand forecasting demonstrates that internet search indexes can be an effective forecasting tool, bringing a real-time big data perspective to traditional agribusiness analyses. The findings have important implications for industry and policy. For the industry, plastic raw material suppliers should monitor ESG-related search trends to anticipate changes in demand, and proactively plan for the supply of recycled materials to cope with the decline in demand for virgin plastics under the sustainability trend. In terms of policy, the government can strengthen the promotion of ESG sustainability concepts and support the application of recycled plastic raw materials, such as the introduction of subsidies and recycling mechanisms to accelerate the transformation of agricultural materials into reduced plastics; at the same time, the search trend data can be used as a policy reference tool to keep abreast of market dynamics in order to help realize the goal of sustainable development.