台灣農業支出預算斷續之研究

Abstract

本研究旨在探討政府預算變動中的斷續均衡現象，並以台灣1990年至2023年中央及地方政府的農業支出作為研究對象。過去預算研究多採漸進主義觀點解釋預算小幅而穩定的調整，然此觀點難以解釋預算偶發的大幅變動現象。本研究則引入斷續均衡理論（Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, PET）作為分析框架，強調政策系統可能因制度摩擦與資訊處理能力限制，在特定情境下產生大幅度的預算變動。 透過量化方法分析年變動率與L-Kurtosis值，本研究發現中央政府農業支出存在顯著的斷續現象，其L-Kurtosis值達0.373，明顯高於常態分佈基準0.123，顯示其預算調整並非完全漸進，而是存在斷續現象，有著突然地劇烈變化。此外，相較於地方政府整體（L-Kurtosis值為0.078），中央政府的預算斷續現象更為明顯。實證分析亦指出農業主管機關（農業部）的資訊處理能力較佳（L-Kurtosis值為0.363），相較之下非主管機關如內政部（L-Kurtosis值為0.728）和經濟部（L-Kurtosis值為0.478）則呈現較高的斷續情形，符合斷續均衡理論所強調之資訊處理能力與制度摩擦對預算調整的影響。 本研究透過實證資料支持斷續均衡理論於台灣政府預算研究中的適用性，並凸顯中央與地方、主管與非主管機關間制度摩擦與資訊處理能力的差異對預算編列的影響，進一步填補過去文獻的研究缺口。然而，本研究亦指出受限於資料完整性、單一政事別分析範圍，以及方法論上的限制，未來研究可納入更多政事別支出與其他分析方法，以深化對預算斷續現象的理解。

This study investigates the phenomenon of punctuated equilibrium in government budgetary changes, using agricultural expenditures from Taiwan's central and local governments between 1990 and 2023 as the empirical subjects. Traditional budget studies often adopt an incrementalist perspective to explain small and stable budget adjustments, yet this approach struggles to account for occasional dramatic budget shifts. To address this gap, this research employs the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) as an analytical framework, emphasizing how policy systems can experience substantial budgetary shifts due to institutional frictions and limitations in information-processing capacities under certain conditions. Through quantitative analysis of annual rate changes and L-Kurtosis values, this study identifies significant punctuations in the central government’s agricultural expenditures. The central government’s L-Kurtosis value is 0.373, significantly higher than the normal distribution benchmark of 0.123, indicating that budget adjustments are not entirely incremental but instead exhibit punctuated episodes with sudden drastic changes. Furthermore, compared to the overall local governments (L-Kurtosis = 0.078), the punctuated equilibrium phenomenon within the central government is notably more pronounced. The analysis also reveals that the competent agricultural authority (Ministry of Agriculture) has relatively stronger information-processing capabilities (L-Kurtosis = 0.363), whereas non-competent authorities such as the Ministry of the Interior (L-Kurtosis = 0.728) and the Ministry of Economic Affairs (L-Kurtosis = 0.478) show more pronounced punctuations. These findings align with the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory's emphasis on the influence of information-processing capacity and institutional friction on budget adjustments. Empirical findings from this study support the applicability of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory within Taiwanese government budgeting research, highlighting the impact of differences in institutional friction and information-processing capabilities between central versus local governments, and competent versus non-competent agencies. This study addresses a gap in existing literature, though it also notes limitations regarding data completeness, the narrow focus on a single policy sector, and methodological constraints. Future research is suggested to include additional policy areas and analytical methods to further deepen understanding of budgetary punctuations.