政府對慶典活動之支持與農業產值關係之實證研究

Abstract

本研究旨在探討政府對農業慶典活動之支持與地方農業表現關係，以臺灣各縣市15年間的面板資料進行實證分析。研究採用固定效果模型，以政府標案支出作為政府支持慶典活動的代理變數，分析其對農業產值的影響，並以漁業與畜牧業產值作為對比。 本研究以縣市作為固定效果並參採農業勞動力、稻米產量、耕地面積比例、氣溫與降雨量等變數。研究先行針對變數間的多重共線性問題進行變異數膨脹因子分析與相關係數檢視，控制變數的分析結果揭示了農業發展的結構性挑戰，如農業勞動力與耕地面積比例對產值中存有可能的邊際報酬遞減和土地利用效率呈現出負向關聯、以及出氣溫對農業產值之正向影響，於最後，建立縮減模型處理統計問題。 於最終實證結果顯示，政府標案支出係數呈現弱顯著的負向關係，此結果與作者預期相悖，暗示政府在於慶典的投入可能未能有效轉化為農業生產端的實質助益，甚至可能產生資源排擠、分配效率不彰等現象。 本研究提供了政府節慶支持政策效果評估的實證證據，挑戰了農業慶典將促進地方農業發展的傳統假設。研究結果提醒政策制定者，應檢視以慶典活動為媒介的農業發展政策，確保公共資源能更精準地支持農業。

This study investigates the relationship between government support for agricultural festival activities and local agricultural value, conducting an empirical analysis using 15-year panel data from counties and cities in Taiwan. Employing a fixed-effects model, the study uses government procurement expenditure as a proxy variable for government support for festival activities to analyze its impact on agricultural production value, with fishery and livestock values serving as control groups. The study incorporates county fixed effects and includes variables such as agricultural labor force, rice production, the proportion of cultivated land area, temperature, and precipitation. A preliminary analysis was conducted to address multicollinearity among variables through a Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) analysis and a review of correlation coefficients. The results for the control variables reveal structural challenges in agricultural development. For instance, a potential diminishing marginal return was observed between the agricultural labor force and production value, and a negative correlation was found between the proportion of cultivated land and land use efficiency. Conversely, temperature showed a positive impact on agricultural production value. Ultimately, a reduced-form model was established to address statistical issues. The final empirical results indicate that the coefficient for government procurement expenditure shows a weakly significant negative relationship. This outcome contradicts the author’s initial hypothesis, suggesting that government investment in festivals may not effectively translate into tangible benefits for the agricultural production sector and might even lead to resource crowding-out or inefficient allocation. This research provides empirical evidence for evaluating the effectiveness of government policies supporting festivals and challenges the conventional assumption that agricultural festivals promote local agricultural development. The findings serve as a reminder for policymakers to scrutinize agricultural development policies that use festival activities as a medium, ensuring that public resources can be more precisely allocated to support the agricultural sector.