瑞士加入歐盟的前景及展望(1992-2007)

Abstract

本文主要利用現實主義的觀點來分析瑞士在未來加入歐盟的前景與展望。瑞士現為世界上歷史最悠久也是僅有的永久中立國家，在近兩十年來，全球趨勢走向跨國多邊合作、區域整合以及全球化，許多傳統的軍事對峙及衝突早已經不是國家主要的威脅與問題來源，瑞士卻仍舊堅持不改變從前國際情勢不穩定、戰爭不斷時所採取的中立及不結盟的外交政策，只願意與國家及國際組織針對於較不帶有政治及軍事性質的議題進行合作與參與，對於加入歐盟的抱持著懷疑的立場。 瑞士的決策及作法與曾為永久中立國家之一的奧地利是全然不同的，其中的原因除了過去慘痛的歷史經驗，大小征戰不斷，國家貧瘠導致瑞士人缺乏對於國與國之間合作及信任，再者，瑞士是由不同的語言族群所組成的一個聯邦國家，自建邦以來一向賦予各邦極大的自主性，甚至從邦聯制改為聯邦制後仍舊如此，希望能夠藉此維持國內各邦的和平及穩定。而瑞士政府這種作法雖然維護了國內社會及人民之間的和諧，但多族群的問題從來不曾消失，導致瑞士國民先天上就缺少國家意識，只能依靠後天政府所建立的聯邦制、直接民主及永久中立來作為凝聚瑞士人之國家意識及團結的方式，因此瑞士政府不敢輕易的改變現有的國家制度，必須比其他中立國家更加謹慎且緩慢的來進行轉型，避免挑起不同語言區及各邦之間的對立，動搖國家的根基。 另一個讓瑞士選擇繼續不加入歐洲整合腳步的原因則是瑞士與歐盟自1992年，EEA條約公投失敗後，所簽署的雙邊協定：第一組及第二組雙邊協定，其實已經足夠讓瑞士得到不少於簽署EEA條約的國家與歐盟會員國的利益及權益，而且雙邊關係的互動模式讓瑞士避免面對國內各邦及各語言區群眾的反應，也不需要對歐盟盡任何義務，大幅了降低了成本，卻仍舊能夠保護國家利益，因此加入歐盟及維持雙邊關係的兩種選項，對於仍舊無法脫離現實主義思維，隨時強調利益及極度國家中心的瑞士來說當然是會選擇繼續維持雙邊關係的選項。 本文的結論為瑞士雖然將加入歐盟設定為國家長期的目標，但瑞士政府的態度在發現雙邊互動模式其實才是最符合瑞士國家利益後轉變為消極，尤其第一組與第二組雙邊協定簽署完成後，所有協定要至2015年方能全數生效。因此，在瑞士聯邦政府認為雙邊關係才是對瑞士最有利的思維，以及缺乏積極宣導國內各邦及群眾的情況下，若是歐盟方面沒有拿出真正強硬的立場來讓瑞士感受大有必須加入歐盟的壓力的話，瑞士政府不可能會放棄眼前的既得利益，勢必將繼續現狀，也就是用雙邊關係這種低成本獲得高回報的方式來與歐盟互動，並分享歐盟的市場。

This paper aims to analyze the outlooks and considerations of Switzerland joining EU in the foreseeable future under the realism’s perspectives. Being the last and unique permanent neutral state in the international community, Switzerland chooses not to give up its policies on neutrality and non-alliance, even after the Cold-War has ended, when the world steps into a new ear which traditional arm forces are no longer the main source of threat to national security, Switzerland still refuses to believe in institutions and hesitates to join the vast-progressing process of European integration. One of the main reasons that causes Switzerland’s decision on maintaining bilateral relationships with the EU is the bitter historical background. The Swiss Federation is consisted by Cantons at the beginning to fight against and to defend foreign threats, the Federation is formed by Cantons with different languages, religions and cultures; in other words, Swiss Federation is a very loose type of Federal system. Lack of common language, religion and culture lead to a lack of national identify in the Swiss nationals. Thus the Swiss government has to cohere its nationals by unique man-made institutions such as federalism, direct democracy and neutrality, to help Swiss nationals to define themselves. Therefore, as Swiss people get to used to define themselves according to these unique institutions, any possible change will provoke anxiety in the society and Cantons. The painful history and pluralistic nature of Swiss society let Federal government hesitates to make any change on the current policies and refuses to believe in institutional cooperation, since Switzerland cannot afford any division in society and Cantons which serves as the fundaments of the nations. The advantages of bilateral interactions also contribute to Switzerland’s reluctance to become a EU member. Bilateral agreements such as Bilateral I and II allow Switzerland to maintain and continue a close relationship an d access to the EU market just like EEA countries and EU members. Switzerland enjoys benefits and opportunities no less than EEA countries at a lesser price, which satisfies the interest of Switzerland. A realist actor like Switzerland is not willing to share her interest and opportunities with other countries, and also will not do any decision that will harm its national autonomy. Hence, if bilateral relationship brings Switzerland almost everything the EEA countries enjoys at a much cheaper price, and Switzerland is not required of any responsibility, the Federal government will not bother to give up all these advantages and privileges. The conclusion of this paper is Switzerland will not become a member of EU in the near future if there is no direct and strong threat and economic pressure coming from the outside, especially from EU. Since Bilateral I and II already offers Switzerland near perfect substitutes to the EEA agreement, there is no need for Switzerland to take the risk to participate in a supranational organization like EU, which will limit Switzerland’s autonomy and bring chaos in the society.