歐元區反分裂工具在疫情後的發展前景

Abstract

本文以 COVID-19 疫情及俄烏戰爭為背景，探討歐元區反分裂工具的發展與挑戰。研究關注歐債危機後歐洲央行（European Central Bank，簡稱ECB）為應對經濟分裂化所設計的政策工具，分析其歷史演變、制度矛盾及有效性。通過歷史制度分析與比較案例研究，發現歐元區長期面臨「貨幣政策集權化」與「財政主權分散化」的結構性困境，而疫情與能源危機加劇了核心國（如德國）與邊緣國（如義大利）間的經濟失衡。研究顯示，舊工具如歐洲穩定機制（ESM）與疫情緊急購債計畫（PEPP）雖能短期穩定市場，卻因條件僵化與合法性爭議難以應對新危機；新工具如傳輸保護工具（TPI）雖具靈活性，但其模糊的資格標準可能引發道德風險與法律挑戰。本文進一步提出三階段改革路徑：短期需強化傳輸保護工具（TPI）透明度並完善財政規則；中期應推動財政整合與債務共同化；長期目標為建立政治聯盟。反分裂工具的本質是歐元區制度非對稱性的縮影，唯有平衡政策彈性與財政紀律，方能實現貨幣聯盟的永續發展與穩定。近日美國新的關稅措施出台，對歐洲各國造成不同程度的影響。整體而言，首先是對歐盟商品徵收關稅將導致歐元區GDP萎縮，若歐盟採取反制措施則會進一步導致GDP的降幅增大。關稅增加直接導致商品進口成本上升，造成短期內歐元區的物價尤其是能源和食品價格飆升。其次，關稅措施衝擊歐元區各國的核心產業和供應鏈，貿易不確定性增加，同時企業因供應鏈風險和生產成本上升，各國如德國汽車產業出口下滑，對港口物流也造成連鎖反應。還有對法國農產品以及奢侈品、義大利的中小企業和機械製造產業的打擊等。 貿易摩擦和地緣政治風險是歐洲央行未來貨幣政策面臨的重大不確定因素。為了應對以上的困境，歐洲央行在2025年3月和6月兩度降息，6月5日的最新連續八次降息。儘管短期內可以透過降息緩解，但達到中性利率後降息空間有限，歐洲央行需要通過其他如重啟資產購債、提供流動性等方式幫助歐洲度過難關。根據以往歐洲央行貨幣政策工具經驗而言，長期的邊際效益正在遞減。歐洲央行有更大的激勵增加區域整體的共同財政能力，利用現有工具箱的政策工具幫助歐洲度過難關。同時加大對於綠色產業的投資，促進歐洲產業轉型和升級。

This paper explores the development and challenges of the Eurozone's anti-fragmentation tools against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. The study focuses on the policy tools designed by the European Central Bank (ECB) to deal with economic fragmentation after the European debt crisis, analyzing its historical evolution, institutional contradictions and effectiveness. Through historical institutional analysis and comparative case studies, it is found that the Eurozone has long faced a structural dilemma of "monetary policy centralization" and "fiscal sovereignty decentralization", while the pandemic and energy crisis have exacerbated the economic imbalance between core countries (such as Germany) and peripheral countries (such as Italy). The study shows that although old tools such as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) can stabilize the market in the short term, they are difficult to cope with new crises due to rigid conditions and legitimacy disputes; new tools such as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) are flexible, but their vague eligibility criteria may trigger moral risks and legal challenges. This paper further proposes a three-stage reform path: in the short term, it is necessary to strengthen the transparency of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) and improve fiscal rules; in the medium term, fiscal consolidation and debt mutualization should be promoted; and the long-term goal is to establish a political union. The essence of anti-division tools is a microcosm of the asymmetry of the Eurozone system. Only by balancing policy flexibility and fiscal discipline can the sustainable development and stability of the monetary union be achieved. Recently, the new tariff measures introduced by the United States have had varying degrees of impact on European countries. Overall, first of all, the imposition of tariffs on EU goods will lead to a shrinking GDP in the Eurozone. If the EU takes countermeasures, the decline in GDP will be further increased. The increase in tariffs directly leads to an increase in the cost of importing goods, causing prices in the Eurozone, especially energy and food prices, to soar in the short term. Secondly, tariff measures have impacted the core industries and supply chains of Eurozone countries, increased trade uncertainty, and at the same time, due to supply chain risks and rising production costs, the exports of various countries such as Germany's automobile industry have declined, which has also caused a chain reaction on port logistics. There are also blows to French agricultural products and luxury goods, Italy's small and medium-sized enterprises and machinery manufacturing industries. Trade frictions and geopolitical risks are major uncertainties facing the ECB's future monetary policy. In order to cope with the above difficulties, the ECB cut interest rates in March and June 2025, and the latest eight consecutive interest rate cuts on June 5. Although the short-term relief can be achieved through interest rate cuts, the room for interest rate cuts is limited after reaching the neutral interest rate. The ECB needs to respond to the impact through other means such as restarting asset purchases and providing liquidity. Based on the past experience of the ECB's monetary policy tools, the long-term marginal benefits are decreasing. The ECB has a greater incentive to increase the region's overall common fiscal capacity and use the policy tools in the existing toolbox to help Europe through the difficulties. At the same time, it will increase investment in green industries to promote the transformation and upgrading of European industries.