承銷商所屬賣方分析師報告對公開發行績效之影響

Abstract

本研究探討台灣市場中，承銷商所屬賣方分析師報告對公開發行（Seasoned Public Offerings, SPO）績效之影響。過去文獻指出，美國市場中，承銷商分析師存在因利益衝突而調整報告內容的現象，並且賣方分析師報告數量可顯著降低SPO折價幅度（Bowen et al., 2008；Lin and McNichols, 1998）。然而，台灣市場之證券商經營型態、投資人結構、監管環境與美國有所不同，相關研究尚屬缺乏。本研究以台灣2021年1月至2025年3月間現金增資與可轉換公司債案件為樣本，結合Bloomberg與TEJ資料庫，檢驗三項假說：(1) 承銷商所屬分析師是否給予更高目標價；(2) 分析師報告總數是否能降低SPO折價；(3) 承銷商分析師報告數量降低SPO折價之效果是否弱於非承銷商分析師。實證結果顯示：台灣市場中，承銷商所屬分析師之目標價並未顯著高於非承銷商分析師，反映市場特性與資訊環境差異；分析師報告數量並未對台灣市場的SPO折價幅度產生顯著的影響，此結果可能與分析師報告市場影響力不足有關；近一步區分承銷商所屬分析師報告數量與非承銷商所屬分析師報告數量的影響，承銷商所屬分析師報告數量增加，有助於減少SPO折價幅度，非承銷商所屬分析師報告數量對折價幅度的影響則無統計顯著性，此結果可能與數量假象效應、市場擔憂存在炒作行為有關。

This study examines the impact of underwriter-affiliated sell-side analyst reports on the performance of Seasoned Public Offerings (SPOs) in the Taiwan market. Prior literature indicates that in the U.S. market, underwriter-affiliated analysts may adjust their reports due to conflicts of interest, and that an increased number of analyst reports can significantly reduce SPO underpricing (Bowen et al., 2008; Lin and McNichols, 1998). However, the structure of securities firms, investor composition, and regulatory environment in Taiwan differ markedly from those in the U.S., and related research remains limited.This study utilizes a sample of seasoned equity and convertible bond offerings in Taiwan from January 2021 to March 2025, combining data from Bloomberg and the TEJ database, to test three hypotheses: (1) whether underwriter-affiliated analysts issue higher target prices; (2) whether the total number of analyst reports reduces SPO underpricing; and (3) whether the effect of underwriter-affiliated analyst reports on reducing underpricing is weaker than that of non-affiliated analyst reports.Empirical results show that underwriter-affiliated analysts in Taiwan do not issue significantly higher target prices than non-affiliated analysts, reflecting differences in market characteristics and information environments. The total number of analyst reports does not have a statistically significant impact on SPO underpricing in Taiwan, potentially due to the limited market influence of analyst reports. Further distinguishing between underwriter-affiliated and non-affiliated analyst reports, the results indicate that an increase in underwriter-affiliated analyst reports helps to reduce SPO underpricing, while non-affiliated analyst reports show no significant effect. This finding may be related to the illusion of quantity effect and market concerns over potential manipulation.