台灣貨幣政策對通膨持續性之影響

Abstract

本研究探討台灣消費者物價指數及其組成項目中不同類別商品的通膨持續性，並進一步分析貨幣政策對通膨持續性之影響，實證結果顯示台灣不同商品類別的通膨持續性具有明顯的差異，而貨幣政策能夠顯著影響到整體通膨率的持續性，但其對不同商品類別的影響存在差異，顯示政策需根據商品特性進行調整，以提升政策的針對性與靈活性。我們接著進一步將1981年至2024年間的樣本分為三個階段，分析2008年全球金融危機及2019年COVID-19疫情等重大事件對通膨持續性的影響。結果顯示這些事件造成部分商品類別的通膨持續性產生了顯著的轉變，顯現出外部衝擊對台灣通膨動態的重要性。最後透過局部投射法分析貨幣政策對通膨持續性的影響，發現貨幣政策確實能夠抑制通膨持續性，且在長期下效果更為明顯。本研究提供了實證的基礎，建議政府應根據不同的經濟情況和商品類別特性，採取更具針對性的政策措施，以確保通膨維持在可控範圍內，促進經濟穩定與持續成長。

This study investigates the inflation persistence across various categories of goods within Taiwan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its subcomponents, and further analyzes the impact of monetary policy on inflation persistence. The empirical results reveal substantial differences in inflation persistence among different categories of goods in Taiwan. While monetary policy significantly affects the persistence of overall inflation, its impact varies across different categories, suggesting that policy measures should be adjusted according to the characteristics of specific goods to enhance their precision and flexibility. The analysis then divides the sample period from 1981 to 2024 into three phases to examine how major events —such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—have influenced inflation persistence. The findings indicate that these events led to notable shifts in inflation persistence for certain categories, highlighting the importance of external shocks in Taiwan’s inflation dynamics. Finally, using the local projection method to analyze the effect of monetary policy on inflation persistence, the results confirm that monetary policy is indeed effective in reducing inflation persistence, with its effects becoming more pronounced over the long term. This research provides an empirical foundation for recommending that the government adopt more targeted policy measures based on economic conditions and the specific characteristics of various goods, in order to keep inflation within a controllable range and promote stable and sustained economic growth.