中國經濟展望－以失落30年的日本經濟為對照

Abstract

目前中國經濟和1990年代初的日本有許多相似之處，例如：房地產泡沫破裂、人口出現負增長、內部需求不振以及年輕人的就業困難等等…，中國會是第二個日本嗎？本論文透過中國與日本經濟指標，過去30年的相互比較，發現了幾個現象。首先是，中國是否會出現日本陷入長期通貨緊縮的現象，中國是否會因為政府政策，有效阻止房地產繼續大幅度的下跌，且有效使不動產的流動性有效提升，進而避免出現1990年代後的日本消費部門的負資產現象，這兩個議題，本研究發現仍需持續觀察。 本研究也發現，中國由於人口紅利的喪失，未來的經濟結構勢必大幅度的調整，由原本的雙位數的高速成長，轉向單位數的中低速成長，於此環境下，相對於1990年代的日本，本研究發現，儘管此時中西方的學者對於中國經濟的未來走向，出現嚴重的分歧，西方學者多數抱持悲觀的態度，但中方學者卻普遍較為樂觀，但本研究對於中國整體的經濟走向卻是抱持樂觀，原因來自於兩國間政治制度的差異，使我們相信，中國的政府決策速度較日本快速，能於更短的時間內提出更多的救市方案與措施。 再者，1990年代的日本匯率，因為國外的干預出現大幅度的升值，此刻的中國，預期未來匯率穩定，且不具備大幅度升值或是貶值的條件，這也是我們認為未來不論是貨幣政策或是財政政策，中國的有效性都會較日本顯著。

The current Chinese economy has many similarities with Japan in the early 1990s, such as the bursting of the real estate bubble, negative population growth, sluggish internal demand, and employment difficulties for young people, etc... Will China be the second Japan? This paper discovered several phenomena by comparing the economic indicators of China and Japan over the past 30 years. The first is whether China will see the phenomenon of long-term deflation in Japan, and whether China will effectively prevent real estate from continuing to decline sharply due to government policies, and effectively increase the liquidity of real estate, thereby avoiding the Japanese consumption after the 1990s. The phenomenon of negative equity in the department, these two issues, this study found still need to be continuously observed. This study also found that due to the loss of demographic dividend, China's future economic structure is bound to undergo substantial adjustments, from the original double-digit high-speed growth to single-digit mid- to low-speed growth. In this environment, compared to Japan in the 1990s, this study found that although Chinese and Western scholars have serious disagreements about the future direction of China's economy at this time, most Western scholars hold a pessimistic attitude, but Chinese scholars are generally more optimistic. However, this study has a negative impact on China's overall economy. The trend is optimistic. The reason comes from the differences in the political systems between the two countries, which makes us believe that the Chinese government’s decision-making speed is faster than that of Japan, and it can propose more rescue plans and measures in a shorter period of time. Furthermore, in the 1990s, Japan's exchange rate appreciated significantly due to foreign intervention. At this moment, China expects that its exchange rate will be stable in the future and does not have the conditions for substantial appreciation or depreciation. This is why we believe that in the future, whether it is monetary policy or fiscal policy, China's effectiveness will be more significant than Japan's.