油氣行業轉型策略研究─以Shell為個案

Abstract

2015年12月在法國舉行的聯合國第21屆氣候變遷大會 (21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC)，通過了一項具有法律約束力的氣候變遷國際條約，又稱巴黎協定 (The Paris Agreement)。設定了全球平均氣溫升幅，需控制在不超過工業化前水準2℃，最好是1.5℃之內的目標。從此開展了綠色能源產業的發展路徑，引發全球能源產業的新戰場。為傳統油氣產業 (Oil and Gas Industry) 帶來前所未見的衝擊。本研究主要分析殼牌集團如何進行企業轉型，從原本擅長的石油與天然氣領域，逐步進入低碳能源的策略及其成效。並從2023年富比士全球2000強 (Forbes Global 2000)，排名前50的企業中，挑選非國營的石油公司，分別從轉型策略、財務績效以及投資人的反應等進行分析比較。 研究發現，相較於同業，Shell採取了穩健的轉型策略與步調，從既有的核心技術出發，將經營百年的化石類產品組合，進行改造與低碳化，一方面持續供應世界能源與石化原料的需求，創造穩定的現金流，另一方面則同時發展可再生能源業務。兼顧了商業利益的現實面與善盡企業的社會責任。與其他選取的同業對比，轉型期間的獲利能力、財務韌性等皆表現優異。雖然可再生能源已在氣候變遷議題下，成為能源產業的主流，Shell的轉型將可成功跨入多元能源供應者的角色，持續在能源與石化原料領域保持領先地位。然而，各國政府面對能源議題時，常會隨著經濟和政治形勢的變化而調整。油氣公司也將會隨著法令及政策的轉變而放緩或加快轉型的步調。 本文的研究範圍僅限於完成前六個月所收集到的資料進行分析論述。

In December 2015, a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted by the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in France (known as the Paris Agreement), set an overarching goal to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. It paves the way for green energy development, triggers a new battlefield for the energy sector, and brings an unprecedented impact on the traditional oil and gas industry. This study mainly analyzes how the Shell Group transforms from its oil and gas sector expertise to low-carbon energy strategies. Also, it selects non-state-owned oil companies from the top 50 of the 2023 Forbes Global 2000 list to conduct a comparative analysis of their transformation strategies, financial performance, and investor responses. The research found Shell has adopted the strategy and pace of steady transformation. Starting from its existing core technologies to decarbonize its century-old fossil product portfolio. Keep supplying the world's energy and petrochemical raw materials to create stable cash flow and simultaneously develop renewable energy. This approach balances commercial interests and social responsibility. Compared to the selected peers, Shell shows excellent profitability and financial resilience. Although renewable energy has become mainstream in the energy industry due to climate change issues, Shell's transformation will be successfully poised to lead as a diversified energy supplier, maintaining its leading position in the energy and petrochemical raw materials sectors. However, governments often adjust their energy policies in response to changes in economic and political conditions. Oil and gas companies might also slow down or accelerate the pace of transformation as laws and policies change. The research scope of this study is limited to the analysis and discussion of the data collected during the first six months of completion.