臺灣毒品持有案件判刑的實證研究

Abstract

本研究運用計量經濟學方法，系統性分析了影響臺灣地方法院毒品持有案件中法官量刑決策的多重因素。儘管國際間已有大量關於量刑決策的實證研究，臺灣在此領域的相關實證分析仍相對不足。基於7,155件地方法院毒品持有案件的樣本數據，透過迴歸分析模型，探討毒品重量、被告特徵（如性別、年齡、教育程度）、自首情節、累犯狀況等變數對量刑結果的邊際效應。研究結果顯示，累犯及毒品重量對量刑具有顯著正向影響，隨著毒品重量增加與累犯次數增多，量刑天數顯著上升，而自首與合作供出毒品來源則顯著減輕刑期，體現法官對合作行為的獎勵。此外，教育程度對量刑的影響表現出異質性，高學歷被告相較於低學歷被告獲得較輕的刑罰。本研究發現不僅提供了臺灣毒品案件量刑決策的實證證據，還揭示了潛在的量刑不公與社會偏見問題。研究結果可作為未來司法政策的制定及量刑標準改革提供參考，進而促進量刑一致性與司法公正。

This study employs econometric methods to analyze the factors influencing sentencing decisions in drug possession cases across Taiwan’s district courts. Drawing on a dataset of 7,155 cases, the regression analysis explores the effects of drug weight, defendant characteristics (e.g., gender, age, education), voluntary confessions, and recidivism on sentencing outcomes. The findings indicate that heavier drug weights and recidivism are associated with longer sentences, while voluntary confessions and cooperation lead to sentence reductions. Furthermore, defendants with higher education levels tend to receive lighter penalties. This study sheds light on potential disparities and social biases in sentencing, providing insights for future judicial policy reforms aimed at enhancing consistency and fairness.