我國國防預算編列能否因應地緣政治風險變化- 向量自我回歸模型分析

Abstract

本論文的研究面向，將藉由量化的臺灣地緣政治風險指數，與本國三十年期間，國防預算的編列總額、及軍事投資、作業維持與人事成本等分項預算的額度，以向量自我回歸模型、格蘭傑因果關係檢驗與變異數組成分解等統計檢定方法，以回歸、因果與組成份分析的表現，來進一步分析地緣政治風險對臺灣國防預算與分預算的影響，並檢視現有國防政策文獻，以探討政策制定的方向與建議。在結果的分析上，臺灣地緣政治風險指數對國防預算的編列是顯著相關的，而對分項預算與各預算間的影響，主要是以臺灣地緣政治風險指數影響軍事投資預算的編列為主，而各預算間則以軍事投資預算影響作業維持與人事成本的預算為顯著。藉由上述量化客觀的統計分析，進而探討國防預算的制定與影響變數、以及地緣政治風險的影響層面，為論文主要研究的範疇。

This paper's research focus will analyze the impact of geopolitical risk on Taiwan's defense budget and its sub-budgets by using a quantified Taiwan Geopolitical Risk Index, the total defense budget allocation over a 30-year period, and the amounts allocated to military investment, operations and maintenance, and personnel costs. The study employs statistical methods such as vector autoregression models, Granger causality tests, and variance decomposition to perform regression, causality, and component analysis. Additionally, existing defense policy literature will be reviewed to explore policy-making directions and recommendations. The results indicate that the Taiwan Geopolitical Risk Index is significantly related to the overall defense budget allocation. The impact on sub-budgets is primarily seen in the influence of the geopolitical risk index on the military investment budget, while the military investment budget notably affects the operations and maintenance budget and personnel costs. Through the aforementioned quantitative and objective statistical analyses, the study aims to explore the formulation of the defense budget, the influencing variables, and the extent of the impact of geopolitical risk, which constitute the main scope of the paper.