探討鄉村韌性之三篇論文：災害回復、 風險知覺及鄉村社區資本

Abstract

在面對社會系統外部的各種威脅、發展問題，以及為求在充滿變化的環境中實現永續發展，需要建立能夠維持其功能、耐受度較高的社會。本論文探討臺灣的鄉村韌性，藉由三個獨立的實證章節，由發展的角度來分析災害管理與復原、氣候變遷政策，以及鄉村發展政策等重要議題。具體而言，本論文涵蓋檢視天災後撤離和搬遷對受災者收入的影響；氣候變遷風險認知的決定因素，以及這些因素如何影響民眾對氣候政策的支持，並對臺灣的鄉村發展政策進行評估。本論文的貢獻首先在於提供實務之見解，從而支持現今鄉村中的循證治理──其中兩個實證章節著重在行為和政策的因果效應。此外，此論文拓展了目前對調適、減緩和發展策略的理解，這對於具有類似經驗的其他國家和地區具有重要參考價值。在學術方面，本論文結合了經濟思維與鄉村社會學的概念，探討複雜的韌性概念及多元的發展問題，特別是採用社區資本架構。 論文第一章為後續章節建立韌性探討之基準立場。這一章探討了各實證研究與韌性之間的關係，並總結了若干與本論文相關之概念。本論文在第一章中亦說明三篇實證章節的研究動機及串聯其中的韌性意義。 目前對於各種應對天災之策略其效果相當有限。第二章探討了莫拉克風災中的撤離行為，以及安置至永久屋的經濟影響。莫拉克風災於2009年在台灣造成超過700人死亡。估計之方法首先定義撤離行為──區分離開和返回原居地的兩種行動，並以此將受災戶進行分類。對於災後居住在永久屋的受災戶，檢視其安置的效果。為了解決在估計過程中撤離及安置的時間不變性及自我選擇問題，本研究採取隨機效果工具變數法 (REIV)。利用莫拉克風災後的獨特追蹤資料，本研究估計出災後一年期的效果以及更長期的多年平均效果。研究結果顯示，撤離行動在一年內整體上有正面效果，但對於在災後不久返回原住所的受災者來說，長期效果為負。安置於永久屋的效果在長期亦為負，特別是對於災後未返回原住處的受災者。 第三章基於理解氣候變遷風險知覺，及其在促進調適與減緩行為的重要性進行探討。文獻中對風險知覺對不同類別的氣候政策支持之影響著墨較少。本篇論文進行鄉鎮調查，探討農村居民對氣候變遷的風險知覺、其形成及其對氣候政策支持的影響。本文在現有的氣候變遷風險知覺模型 (CCRPM) 之基礎上提出了一個概念框架，並包括文獻中發現的其他重要因素，如社區資本架構 (community capitals framework) 中各類型的社區資本。本文探討的公共政策主要取自聯合國進行的人民氣候調查 (Peoples’ Climate Vote)。研究結果顯示，對氣候變遷的態度和主觀的社區資本是風險知覺的重要決定因素，但影響方向相反；而此二構面與風險知覺呈正相關，但不影響政策支持。相對地，風險知覺對所有考慮的政策類型都有預測作用。 論文第四章以社區發展政策的角度檢視社區韌性的建立。許多國家制定發展政策，為鄉村社區提供資源，以應對發展問題並建立具韌性的鄉村地區。在台灣，最相關且具代表性的政策為訂定目的在促進鄉村發展的「農村再生計畫」。同前章，本章亦借鏡鄉村社會學中的社區資本架構，探討農村再生計畫對不同類型的社區資本和收入的影響，並討論其與鄉村發展的相關性。以中央研究院所進行的代表性追蹤調查，並使用工具變量法，此章的研究結果提供了農村再生政策與社區資本和收入之間的因果關係。本章結果顯示，農村再生政策平均而言增加了各鄉村社區之自然資本和社會資本的累積，但對其他類型的社區資本沒有影響。此外，農村再生政策對農村居民的收入沒有顯著影響。這些發現顯示了農村再生政策的發展方向呈現不平衡，本文亦就此點討論了關於政策效果對於未來政策調整的意涵。 依據論文之結果，歸納部分延伸討論如下。在災害管理方面，提高經濟誘因可以增強人們遵守應對策略的意願。此外，搬遷策略應考慮受災者的意見以降低對其生活環境之衝擊。在氣候政策方面，溝通應強調氣候變遷的可能風險。藉由建立經歷過、或可預見的威脅與氣候變遷間的關聯，可能提高鄉村居民對氣候政策的支持。又，目前的社區發展方向應關注風險和威脅以提高風險意識。最後，本論文所討論的鄉村發展政策──農村再生計畫，其對臺灣鄉村社區的幫助有限，政策的改進方向應朝向更全面的執行內容規劃，並且重視內容的傳播。 本論文的最後一章總結了這些實證分析如何與韌性進行連結，並揭示了論文的貢獻和整體限制。本論文在其有關鄉村韌性的實證結果中獨具特色，為建構具韌性之鄉村社會，本論文強調在現有策略與行動之上改進的迫切需要。

Under the different threats outside the social system and emerging development issues, developing a less vulnerable society capable of maintaining its functions is needed to achieve sustainability in the changing environment. This dissertation explores rural resilience in Taiwan. It operationalizes the concept of resilience through three individually empirical chapters, particularly from developmental perspectives. The contributions are several. It provides practical insights that sustain evidence-based governance in today’s rural fields, with two chapters identifying the causal effects of the behaviors and policies. Besides, the dissertation expands the understanding of current adaptation, mitigation, and development strategies, which can provide valuable insights for other countries and regions with similar experiences. Academically, it combines economic thinking with rural sociological concepts to investigate resilience and related developmental issues. The first chapter provides an overview and a standpoint before delving into empirical discussions. It also addresses the relationships between each empirical study and resilience. The current understanding of the existing strategies for coping with natural disasters remains limited despite their significance for potentially threatened inhabitants. Chapter 2 examines the economic impacts of evacuation and relocation in permanent houses in the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot, which hit Taiwan in 2009. The findings reveal a positive one-year effect of evacuation in general and a negative long-term effect for the victims who returned to their original residence. The displacement effect is negative in the long term, especially for the victims who did not return. The effects of risk perception on different policies have been less discussed previously. Chapter 3 conducts a township survey in Taiwan to investigate rural residents’ risk perception of climate change, its formation, and its impacts on the people’s support of climate policies. The policies considered are mainly from a worldwide survey called the Peoples’ Climate Vote. The results show that the attitude toward climate change and the subjective community capitals affect the risk perception, with opposite directions. In contrast, both constructs have no impact on policy support. The risk perception is pertinent in predicting all types of policies. Chapter 4 investigates the building of community resilience from the developmental policy in communities. In Taiwan, the Rural Regeneration Program (RRP) is the most pertinent and representative policy aiming at promoting rural development. Borrowing the concept of the community capitals framework from rural sociology, this chapter investigates the effects of the RRP. This chapter finds that the RRP increases the natural and social capital while having no effect on rural residents’ income. These findings signify the imbalance in the direction of the RRP. The final chapter concludes by expounding on how these empirical analyses are imbued with resilience from the adaptive cycle, the community capitals, and the developmental trajectory. It also presents the dissertation's contribution and overall limitations. Some implications are presented here. Regarding disaster management, raising economic incentives can enhance people’s compliance with coping strategies. Further, the relocation strategy should consider victims’ opinions. In terms of climate policies, communications could accentuate the possible risks of climate change. By building the connection between foreseeable risks or threats that have suffered before with climate change, rural residents may be more willing to support the climate policies. Finally, the RRP has limited help in rural communities in Taiwan. The results indicate the possible improvements in extensions. This dissertation, unique in its empirical evidence about rural resilience from three major aspects, underscores the urgent need for strategic improvements to build a resilient rural society.